article thumbnail

How to Tell If You Should Trust Your Statistical Models

Harvard Business Review

But theory, such as Statistical Learning Theory in Machine Learning , teaches us that predictability typically first improves and then deteriorates as model complexity increases, so adding complexity should not be a goal in itself. So make sure that your analysts apply the model to fresh data in new contexts.

article thumbnail

How to Tell If You Should Trust Your Statistical Models

Harvard Business Review

But theory, such as Statistical Learning Theory in Machine Learning , teaches us that predictability typically first improves and then deteriorates as model complexity increases, so adding complexity should not be a goal in itself.