Harvard Business Review

MARCH 23, 2011

The answer is the sharp and unexpected rise of existential risk. For example, in Japan, the utility company believed its nuclear problem was water — not enough water to cool the reactors and ponds. Every half century or so, the risk assumptions underlying our economic, social and political foundations change dramatically.

Uncertainty 14

Uncertainty Supply Chain Scenario Planning Sharpe 14

Harvard Business Review

MAY 29, 2017

For example, in 2014, at the onset of the sharp deterioration in U.S.-Russian In many cases, people have to bear more costs directly – for example to pay for more of their own healthcare – which also limits their spending power. ” Similarly, hours after the U.S. further sanctions, oil price drop, protests, etc.)

Policies 9

Policies Supply Chain Politics Operations 9

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 23, 2015

A way around this fallacy, we’ve found, is a speed-dating version of scenario planning, one that takes hours rather than months. For example, the group defined the education driver as “the degree to which US elementary through higher education has developed curricula to produce science and technical talent.”

Kahneman 8

Kahneman Scenario Planning Pharmaceuticals Workshop 8