Friday, July 17, 2015

Iran Nuclear Deal

The Washington Post has the full text.

Questions in assessing any negotiation:

  1. Which side cared least about gaining an agreement? [The side that cares least has greater power.]
  2. Which side gets the most tangible benefits? [If one side gets a lot of money and the other side gets a lot of promises, there's not a great mystery as to which side did best.]
  3. How much wiggle room is there when it comes to evading major commitments? [That can go to the heart of any agreement.]
  4. If ancillary issues were included, which ones were not included? [Does that balance favor one side or another?]
  5. If there is a violation, how quickly is the agreement enforced and who will do the enforcing? [Two vital points.]
  6. Although procedures may be depicted as operating in a particular manner, knowing bureaucracy and organizations, how are they likely to operate? [Go with the assumption that good things will take longer than bad things. Life is not a James Bond movie.]
  7. How long will it take to know (i.e. confirm) important information? This is especially important when the other side will have advocates who'll claim that the sun didn't come up this morning and will challenge every conclusion.
  8. Is groupthink present? [Is it evident that the counter-arguments were seriously considered before concluding the agreement?]
  9. What are the worst case scenarios for a good agreement, a bad agreement, or one roughly in-between? Beware of straw man arguments. Look at long-term impact.
  10. How are the parties likely to change  as the result of the agreement? [Remember that enforcement later may be very different from enforcement now.]

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