As business leaders enter the fall, a confluence of negatives is clouding their outlook on the economy. The big bounce back from last year’s trough has lost steam, stimulus is fading, and a plethora of softer economic data is weighing on sentiment. All of this unfolds against the backdrop of the pernicious Delta variant, reinforcing a downbeat narrative.
The U.S. Economic Recovery Is Slowing Down. Don’t Be Alarmed.
Five reasons why consumers are ready to pick up where the stimulus left off.
October 07, 2021
Juan Moyano/Stocksy
Summary.
There are a number of factors currently driving uncertainty in the U.S. economy. Consumer confidence has dipped markedly in recent weeks, while firms’ outlook has dimmed too, as seen in falling PMIs. Inflation, though moderating recently, has not yet fallen back to comfortable levels, while firms are facing bottlenecks in labor and product markets. This is all occurring against the backdrop of the Delta variant and at the critical stage of the recovery where the crutches of policy support fade and the private sector — consumers most of all — have to drive the expansion forward. The authors offer five reasons to be confident that consumers can pick up the expansion and advice on how firms can manage the slowdown.