Pessimists are Almost Right
Pessimistic leaders are almost right. They say, “I’m not a pessimist. I’m a realist.”
Research shows that those who tip slightly toward pessimism have the clearest view of reality.* Optimists overestimate a bright future. Pessimists overestimate darkness.
Pessimists:
Pessimists use a dark future as reason to do nothing. When nothing happens they say, “See, I told you so.” But there’s more to the story.
A little pessimism:
Small doses of pessimism take optimists further than buoyant overconfidence. Avoid leaders who habitually say, “Things will work out,” but don’t plan for success.
- Inspires teams to plan. Improvisation works within a plan, not as an excuse for lack of planning. Overconfident leaders – who don’t plan – are surrounded by frustrated people who are taking up the slack.
- Drives leaders to run from failure. That’s useful if you’re also running toward success.
- Encourages leaders to monitor progress. A little paranoia helps.
- Motivates leaders to protect gains.
- Convinces followers that you appreciate future challenges.
Ask pessimists:
Encourage pessimists by discussing what might go wrong. Just don’t camp in the darkness.
- How might we make reasonable preparation for your top concerns?
- What are the key factors of success for this project?
- When might things go wrong? How will we prepare?
- Who is essential for success?
- How will we monitor progress?
- How might we protect gains and move forward at the same time?
- What might we do to pursue our desired future? Pessimists talk too much about “don’t do” and not enough about what can be done.
Optimists should ask themselves:
- How could we prepare for what might go wrong?
- What are the key success factors?
- When are the tipping points for success?
Pessimists don’t move forward enough. Optimists jump off the cliff believing they’ll figure out how to land safely on the way down.
How might leaders leverage the advantage of small doses of pessimism?
It’s also helpful to discuss probabilities. What’s the probabiility of X, Y or Z happening. Thinking in probabilities get you away form absolute terms (don’t camp in the darkness) but does force you to consider what could happen.
Also, it helps to consult experts for more precise probabilities.
I like that “Optimists jump off the cliff believing they’ll figure out how to land safely on the way down”. How many time have done that “the wings are on order should be here before we hit the bottom”. Have crashed more then once because a critical component of the plan did not show up at the right time. Sometime you have to look and assess what will the cost be if we hit the ground. Sometimes its about trusting others to do their part in time. I say if you trust those in your team to catch you “or get the wings to you in time” then go ahead and jump.
I enjoyed this! I’ve worked closely with “a realist” (who wore it like a verbal tattoo) and “a paranoid” who often quoted Andy Grove.. It reminds me of leader/manager; sales/marketing; even love/fear discussions. My personal convinction is that we need to hear several perspectives in decision making and we need to recognize our own predisposition.. I often started trips to customers for problem resolution with no plan in hand, but knew there was a very capable team working to address the issue.. To me it was saying “I have complete trust in the capability of the team. “…to the engineering team it was “he’s an optimist”… To the customer “they are responsive and timely. “
Thanks for the post. Different way of looking into pessimism
This is a Very helpful blog. While I’m doing better at “slowing down”, planning and “hearing” those who are cautious, my natural inclination is that of a fire-fighter……just do it….just get in and put out the fire! I find the questions to ask “Pessimists” very helpful. They invite prudent planning, without being confrontational, to the one who is as motivated in planning, as I am putting fires out!! 🙂
Great stuff. I wish I would have had this post a few weeks ago when I wrote an Op-Ed describing my optimism on a particular matter. I said I was optimistic – but really like this combo concept wherein we can be optimistic with a touch of pessimism to help balance our goals and expectations. I think I am already but it’s nice to read a little confirmation. Thanks, Dan.
Great Post. I’m an optimistic realist.
Research also shows that pessimists are more prone to depression. Just a little delusional positivity helps keep us going! I believe optimism is a discipline, not the type of rose-colored glasses described here. Optimism balanced with realism – great combo. Thanks for this post, Dan.
Nice one, Dan!
A little balance between optimism and pessimism goes a long way. One just can’t seem to work effectively without the other. Too bad both kinds of individuals are always trying to outwit the other.
At the end of the day i believe leaders should focus more on getting the task ahead done in the most effective way possible by using each side wherever and whenever possible. The last thing you need is taking sides between the “dare-devils” and the “naysayers!”
Great article as always Dan!
Thank you! I’m also a recovering pessimist, striving for optimistic realism, optimistic about our ability to do the thing, and realistic about the timeline.
This is one realistic post, Dan. After all, there’s a positive part to being a pessimist 😀
Maybe pessimists are often just more cautious, risk assessors, who can see all the potential pitfalls. But without a forward vision, there is no hope, and without hope, people give up.
Thanks for the article, its thought provoking.