How to Make Better Decisions

Leading Blog

A remarkable aspect of your mental life," says Daniel Kahneman, "is that you are rarely stumped." We have opinions about nearly everything and are quick to jump to conclusions based only on the information that is right in front of us. How about 10 months?

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Life is Luck — Here’s How to Plan a Career Around It

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman has claimed the following as his favorite equation: Success = talent + luck. Kahneman’s implication is that the difference between moderate and great success is mostly luck, not skill. Chance plays a much greater role in our careers than we might wish or even realize. Most of us can live with the upside of this observation: we tend to claim credit for good luck anyway. If you want to minimize the chance of bad luck, he says, be a dentist.

Instinct Can Beat Analytical Thinking

Harvard Business Review

Researchers have confronted us in recent years with example after example of how we humans get things wrong when it comes to making decisions. We misunderstand probability , we’re myopic , we pay attention to the wrong things, and we just generally mess up. It is not, however, the only lens through which to view decision-making. Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has spent his career focusing on the ways in which we get things right , or could at least learn to.