As many people were forced to work remotely during the Covid pandemic, many wondered whether this would herald a permanent shift towards remote, or at least hybrid, work. These commentators expressed concern about the impact this might have on cities if people can feasibly work from anywhere.
While the “death of cities” hasn’t really transpired, commuter travel has fallen significantly from pre-Covid levels. For instance, weekday traveler numbers in London are around 70% of their pre-Covid levels.
Long-term implications
Research from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology suggests that these trends are likely to endure, with the reduction in commuting having a sustained impact on traveler numbers.
“One person in five says they will use public transport less in the future than they did before the pandemic,” the researchers explain.
They highlight that passenger numbers for 2022 are just 78% of those seen before the pandemic.
Passenger numbers
In June 2021, the researchers conducted a survey of 360 individuals in a medium-sized city in Norway. At that time, many individuals had already received their initial vaccine doses, and life was gradually returning to normal, a few months prior to the first reopening in September 2021.
The survey required participants to express their level of agreement or disagreement with various statements regarding their level of activity during the pandemic, as well as their expected activity level following the pandemic. The researchers sought to investigate how people substituted certain activities and whether their travel habits would alter in the future once they had experimented with new habits. Some of these changes were expected to be permanent.
“People who had the opportunity imagined that home offices and digital meetings would become part of the new normal as well. So we can expect less commuting to work in the future. It’ll be interesting to see if working from home will have a significant impact on smoothing out traffic peaks during the morning and afternoon rush hours,” the researchers explain.
Nature of work
According to the survey, a significant number of respondents valued the social aspect of their workplace and felt its absence during the pandemic. The survey also revealed that employees who engaged in digital coffee breaks and similar activities were likely to utilize home offices more frequently in the future.
Certain physical spaces were replaced by digital alternatives, while more time was spent outdoors in both work and leisure settings. The results indicated that some outdoor activities were curtailed or eliminated, but other individual pursuits experienced an expansion.
“Several results were ambiguous, as in this case. We can interpret the results as different people having very different habits, or that they interpreted the question differently. In terms of the time spent outdoors—whether more and less—it’s conceivable that individuals who spent less time outdoors experienced their organized activities being put on hold, while increasing outdoor activities like walking, jogging and other exercise on their own,” the researchers explain.
Changing lifestyles
The impact of the pandemic was also felt outside of our workplace behaviors. For instance, the report highlights the changes in how we shopped (and how we travel to shop). Around 80% of respondents said that they travel less to shop, with a significant number saying that they try to shop at less busy times to avoid crowds. There was also a significant rise in home deliveries.
“Home delivery of groceries did not become as popular as home delivery of other non-edible goods,” the researchers explain. “Without asking the respondents to elaborate, it seems that different online shopping habits for different types of goods depended on how hard it was to buy an item. Maybe we’d be willing to wait a week for a pair of training tights to arrive in the post, but we didn’t want to wait a couple days for dinner ingredients we wanted to use right away.”
Worryingly for transport providers, just 70% of those surveyed said that they’re likely to return to the pre-pandemic habits. While a 30% change in habits may not sound much, it’s nonetheless likely to place significant strain on the business model of infrastructure providers.
If infrastructure providers are to regain these passengers then they need to rethink their offering. At the moment, a significant number of people have decided that working from home a few days a week is more practical and enjoyable. The research reminds us that once these habits take hold, they’re hard to shift, so time is of the essence if providers want us to return to pre-Covid norms.
