Why Leaders Need to Think More Like Professional Gamblers

Leading Blog

Many years later, French mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace developed Bayes’s idea into a powerful theory, which we now know as the Bayes Theorem. Bayes is relevant to modern leaders because it can help them develop an approach to uncertainty that is less deterministic and more probabilistic. The point of this exercise was to develop an alternative league table, which might serve as a more reliable predictor of results and a better basis on which to value and acquire players.

7 Ways to Improve Operations Without Sacrificing Worker Safety

Harvard Business

They are then reviewed by the company’s Manufacturing Leadership Council. According to Jim Gallogly, no matter how low the OSHA recordable injury rate, if there is a serious incident — a fire, a chemical release, a worker is seriously hurt — no manager gets a bonus. ” Rethink how you think about injury rates. Injury rates, often called “OSHA recordables” are important metrics, in that they reflect the very real experience of your workforce.

The Real Solution Is Growth

Harvard Business Review

Recent headlines have focused on the debt ceiling , the recent credit rating downgrade , unemployment , and the other thorny fiscal challenges facing the United States. But consider this: increasing the country's average growth rate by one percentage point over the next 20 years would not only result in much higher incomes and more jobs for all Americans but would also obviate the need for drastic spending cuts today to reign in the government deficit.