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How Corporate Investors Can Improve Their Odds

Harvard Business Review

The operative question for them is, not “How confident am I that this investment will yield a positive return?” Ideas with positive discounted cash flows get investment. Five produced positive returns, two broke even, and three lost a little, but not a catastrophic, amount of money. Those that don’t, don’t.

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Hospital Budget Systems Are Holding Back Innovation

Harvard Business Review

Despite a one-year payback period and a highly positive net present value (NPV) from this investment, the department will often reject the attractive opportunity. Consider the opportunity to raise spending in Year 1 by $100,000 to acquire technology that would decrease spending each year thereafter by $100,000.

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Why We Need to Update Financial Reporting for the Digital Era

Harvard Business Review

However, many investors seem to have concluded that the most successful companies with tens of billions of dollars of valuation today could never have justified their valuation at the start of their operation based on discounted cash flow. Investors are paying more attention to ideas and options than to earnings.

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What Markets Do and Don’t Get About Innovation

Harvard Business Review

Investors’ core valuation methods ( comparables and discounted cash-flow analysis) both extrapolate past performance into the future — but they fail to predict when the future will be radically different from the past. As a result, outlooks are more likely to be positive or mixed.