Of all the stakeholders involved in, or impacted by, the development of autonomous technology, parking vendors are unlikely to be at the top of anyone’s sympathy list.  The high pricing for parking in major cities is something few motorists enjoy, so the finding from new research from the University of Oregon that they will be significantly hit by the development of autonomous technology may elicit a cheer from motorists everywhere.

Despite the unpopularity of urban parking systems, they nonetheless provide a valuable source of revenue for municipal budgets.  The researchers assessed the potential impact of autonomous vehicles on urban parking by using ride sharing services, such as Uber, as a proxy for widespread autonomous vehicle networks, as they are likely to behave in a similar way.

They examined the evolution of parking demand in various Seattle neighborhoods, comparing each Uber trip undertaken in the city with parking data from the area.  The analysis found that up to a certain point, each new Uber journey correlated with more parking spaces being occupied, with an extra 1,000 trips associated with a 17.1% rise in parking occupancy.

A complex relationship

The relationship is far from linear, however, as should Uber-style trips grow three times their level in 2016, parking revenues will begin to decline considerably.

The researchers explain their somewhat counter-intuitive finding that parking can rise at the same time as ride sharing journeys by suggesting that ride hailing is not a simple substitute for driving somewhere yourself.  Instead, passengers typically take a combination of modes of transport to their destination, with ride sharing complementing these other modes.

The researchers provide a number of policy options available to urban officials, not least as the time before autonomous vehicles become mainstream affords them a chance to experiment with different approaches:

• Adjust parking policies by time and/or day – Parking occupancy depends on the local built environment, which allows policymajers to adjust parking prices or policies by the time of day or day of the week to try and achieve a desirable occupancy level.
• Lower parking prices – This is arguably the easiest option to counter the reduced demand for parking, but it runs up against policies to promote alternative forms of travel.
• Reduce supply of on-street parking – Another alternative option would be to keep parking prices the same but reduce the level of on-street parking available.  This would free up space for other uses, while also helping to manage congestion and facilitate micromobility.
• Look for other sources of revenue – Cities across the world are looking for alternative uses for parking spaces, whether for ride-sharing pickup points, food delivery spots, and so on.  This helps cities to maintain revenue while also tackling congestion.
• Develop mixed-use and commercial zones – Parking fees were generally highest in mixed-use and commercial areas, which suggests that officials should focus their efforts on these areas to help offset any declines in revenue they experience as parking declines.

The decline in parking revenue is not going to happen overnight, but the researchers hope that their work will help officials to explore a range of scenarios to try and ensure they’re prepared for whatever future emerges.