Public values are a largely fluid affair, with what is the norm today considered extreme in days of yore (and vice versa). When examined globally however, it’s clear that some countries change values at a different pace to others. New research from Stockholm University aims to explore whether these shifts can be predicted or not, and how this might influence political debate.
“Our study shows that the connection between a certain moral position and the type of argument that is raised in its defence, can predict what opinions will gain ground,” the researchers explain.
Predicting social change
The study was based upon new mathematical models that had been built by the team, with the models based upon new findings in the field of moral psychology. The models aim to predict changes in opinion on moral issues over time.
The model was then put to the test on public opinion data over the last 40 years, and the comparison revealed that key opinion shifts are often driven by arguments around what is fair, especially if those arguments don’t cause harm to other people.
“The connection is very clear. And the model can be used to make qualified assessments about the future,” the authors explain.
More classical factors around things such as loyalty, religion, authority and purity may gain temporary support, but they all tend to lose support across the political spectrum over time. If a debate has a strong connection with fairness and harm however, then the chances are much greater that it will lead to lasting change of opinion among the public. What’s more, the stronger this connection is, the faster the change will emerge.
“This can explain why public opinion have changed so rapidly in favour of gay and lesbian rights. Arguments in favour of same sex marriage for instance are based on principles of fairness, while arguments against are based on authority and purity. Over time the latter arguments lose support. On other issues such as support for active euthanasia or to ban pornography, there are powerful arguments on both sides so change goes slower,” the researchers conclude.
