During the various discussions at the COP summits over the past few years, one issue that has been noticeable by its absence is migration. Given how global society has largely struggled with the forced movement of people over the years, this seems a significant oversight. The scale of the problem was emphasized by recent research from the University of Oxford, which found that a 1°C temperature increase can result in ten times as many displaced people as would otherwise be the case.

The researchers examined the impact of conflict, weather, and drought on forced displacement in Somalia and they found that a decrease of 50mm per month in rainfall can lead to a doubling of displacement. The research also found that while conflict is a major driver of displacement, displacement does not necessarily cause additional conflict.

“The lives of pastoralists and farmers in Somalia are balanced on a knife edge. Even a 1°C rise on normal temperatures – whether sustained or frequently re-occurring over a few months – is enough to cause pastures to dry up and crop yield to change,” the researchers explain. “Our research shows these seemingly small temperature changes are having an outsized impact and are forcing communities to leave their homes.”

Forced displacement

According to the study, there was an estimated ten-fold (1098%) increase in expected displacement due to a rise of 1°C in local monthly temperature. Additionally, the predicted numbers for internally displaced populations in Somalia doubled if the average monthly rainfall decreased from 100mm to 50mm.

“The impacts of climate change are already being felt by these vulnerable regions and are likely to get worse,” the researchers explain. “Our research suggests investing in adaptation measures, building local capacity and arranging for rapid humanitarian aid will be key to avoid mass displacement events in future, and helping to stop extreme weather or conflict situations from turning into full blown disasters.”

The authors discovered that conflict is a significant cause of displacement, a phenomenon that has been difficult to comprehend. The reason for this is that conflict can be obscured when other self-reported factors, such as drought, are also cited as reasons for migration.

Furthermore, the study explored whether the arrival of displaced persons in a new region raises the likelihood of conflict due to increased pressure on limited resources like food and water. However, the researchers found no evidence to support this idea.

“Crucially, we find little effect of incoming displaced people on conflict itself,” they conclude. “This finding is novel, and dispels the common myth that displacement might further fuel conflicts.”