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Untangling Skill and Luck

Harvard Business Review

Take, for instance, a group of companies that currently have high returns on invested capital (ROIC). If you follow that group over time, you would see their ROICs revert back toward the cost of capital. This means that an extreme outcome, good or bad, will be followed by an outcome that has an expected value closer to the mean.

Skills 15
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Five Common Strategy Mistakes

Harvard Business Review

Too often the goal is chosen because it sounds good, whether or not the economics of the business support the logic. or with goals (reach X billion in sales, Y share of market). It's not the goal (e.g., It's not the goal (e.g., Correction: Don't confuse strategy with actions (grow, acquire, divest, etc.)