7 Ways for Leaders to Deal With Bias

Lead Change Blog

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman calls it “System 1” thinking, an “effortless, often unconscious process that infers and invents causes and intentions, neglects ambiguity, suppresses doubt, and uses similarity rather than probability.” Leadership Development Bias Daniel Kahneman

Superforecasting: A book review by Bob Morris

First Friday Book Synopsis

Bob's blog entries "Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters" "the robust beauty of simple linear models" Brooke Manville Crown Publishers Dan Gardner Dancing with Robots Daniel Kahneman Dr. Frank Stechon Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Anshen Management and the Corporations McGraw-Hill MIT Urban Planning Report Nassim Nicholas Taleb Nate Silver Philip Tetlock Richard Murnane Herbert Simon “The Corporation [comma] Will it be Managed by Machines?”

Marcia Reynolds: Part 1 of a second interview by Bob Morris

First Friday Book Synopsis

Marcia Reynolds, president of Covisioning LLC, works with clients around the world who seek to develop effective leaders. She understands organizational cultures, what blocks communication and innovation, and what is needed to bring people together for better results. She has coached leaders, delivered leadership, coaching and emotional intelligence programs, and spoken at conferences for […].

Tools 100

HBR’s 10 Must Reads On Making Smart Decisions: A book review by Bob Morris

First Friday Book Synopsis

HBR’s 10 Must Reads on Making Smart Decisions Various Contributors with Editors of Harvard Business Review Harvard Business Review Press (2013) Learn why bad decisions happen to good managers — and how to make better ones This is one in a series of volumes that anthologizes what the editors of the Harvard Business Review consider [.].

Review 100

4 Secrets of Great Critical Thinkers

First Friday Book Synopsis

Bob's blog entries 4 Secrets of Great Critical Thinkers Daniel Kahneman Decision Sciences Decision Strategies International Decision Traps Inc. Here is an excerpt from an excellent article written by Paul J. Schoemaker and featured online at the Inc. magazine website. To read the complete article, check out other resources, and obtain deep-discount subscription information, please click here. * * * The best problem solvers see a complex problem through multiple lenses.

Do you fit the management stereotype?

Chartered Management Institute

Probably the best known experiment into representativeness heuristics was conducted by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 70's. So do you fit the stereotype of a great manager? Adi Gaskell is a manager at the Process Excellence Network. The chances are you haven't heard of representativeness heuristics, and there's no real reason for you to do so.

What Will Your Leadership Legacy Be?

Eric Jacobson

As reported in a past issue of Harvard Business Review , research by the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman suggests that influence will be determinative. Eric Jacobson on Leadership and Management Leadership Leadership Legacy Leaving A Legacy

What To Ask Your Team Before Acting On Their Recommendation

Eric Jacobson

There's a great article in the June issue of the Harvard Business Review by Daniel Kahneman that includes a 12-question checklist that is designed to unearth cognitive biases of teams making recommendations that leaders take into consideration before they make their decisions. Kahneman is a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, and a partner at The Greatest Good.

How Will You Be Remembered As A Leader?

Eric Jacobson

As reported in a recent issue of Harvard Business Review , research by the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman suggests that influence will be determinative. Nonprofit Leadership Management Leadership Eric Jacobson on Leadership and Management General Management Skills Leadership Skills

What Will Your Leadership Legacy Be?

Eric Jacobson

As reported in this month's Harvard Business Review , research by the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman suggests that influence will be determinative. Management Leadership General Management Skills Leadership Skills

The Compound Effect

CEO Blog

There is another great thinker, Daniel Kahneman, who wrote an outstanding article in the NY times that challenges Blink. In the article he talks about the stock picker and fund managers and the people that manage them.

Managing “Atmospherics” in Making Decisions

Harvard Business Review

Decision making Knowledge management One offshoot of the fast-advancing research in neuroscience is the growing body of literature on decision-making.

What True Leaders Know About Emotional Intelligence

Lead Change Blog

True leaders at any level of the totem pole show their leadership primarily through managing their own emotions. True leaders show emotional intelligence by learning about the science-based patterns about how our emotions work and how to manage them.

Managers Shouldn’t Fear Algorithm-Based Decision Making

Harvard Business Review

Tom Blaser and Linnea Gandhi, two managing directors at the consultancy The Greatest Good (TGG), are enthusiastic champions of algorithms. Their recent Harvard Business Review article, coauthored with Noble Prize–winning behavioral economist Daniel Kahneman and TGG’s CEO Andrew M. Managers can allow people to adjust an algorithm’s output, but there should be limits on either the magnitude or frequency of adjustments, as shown in recent research.

3 Ways to Improve Your Decision Making

Harvard Business Review

Nobel-prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman has said that overconfidence is the bias he’d eliminate first if he had a magic wand. ” Kahneman tells a story of a time when he was collaborating on a textbook and asked his coauthors to estimate the date on which they’d complete their first draft. Everyone, including Kahneman, said somewhere between 18 months and two and a half years. Decision making Managing yourself Digital Article

Reading List: What’s on yours?

CO2

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. 12: The Elements of Great Managing by Rodd Wagner and James Harter (see my blog post on this topic here ). Reading List: What’s on yours? My reading list is usually longer than I have time to complete, but I always appreciate book recommendations. Today, I thought I’d share some of mine. I have been reading (or listening) to at least six business books per year for the last twenty years.

Decision Bias

CO2

First, Arnott reviewed some of the most prominent taxonomies: Tversky and Kahneman (1974) Three General Purpose Heuristics. Isenberg (1984), How Senior Managers Think. by Gary Cohen. He who knows and knows that he knows, He is wise, follow him.

When Human Judgment Works Well, and When it Doesn’t

Harvard Business Review

A number of people noted that Nobel prize-winner Daniel Kahneman’s work, nicely summarized in his 2011 book Thinking Fast and Slow , influenced their thinking a great deal. My last post here, the descriptively-titled “Big Data’s Biggest Challenge?

12 Reads for 2012

LDRLB

A fantastic case for a better management perspective, mainly that little things like progress can affect big things like profitability. Perhaps the most under-rated book on evidence-based management. Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. Our first release from LeaderLab gives you an outline of the significant research in leadership, management and organizational behavior while also giving you the warm feeling of supporting the site you love.

WOMEN: Moments in Your Day

Women in the LEAD

I also had a flashback of a dreadful moment many years ago when I was a new manager at IBM. Women in the LEAD A B O U T U S H O W T O C O M M E N T Recent Posts WOMEN: LEADERSHIP is How TO BE WOMEN: Love, Respect and Leadership WOMEN: Is Negative Thinking Holding You Back?

Is Facebook damaging your productivity?

Chartered Management Institute

Indeed I argued this very point in the latest issue of Professional Manager. After all, it's well known that when conducting difficult tasks, what Daniel Kahneman would call system 2 thinking, requires us to be free from distractions. Forging – where people integrate social media into their daily lives and it breaks out of a community manager/marketing dept responsibility. Lets get the caveat out of the way right from the start.

The Hidden Indicators of a Failing Project

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman, in his book Thinking Fast and Slow , recounts a bit of a planning pickle he and his Israeli Ministry of Education colleagues encountered when estimating how long it would take to complete a high school textbook on judgment and decision making. Even more concerning was the fact that until Kahneman prompted his colleague, “there was no connection in his mind between his knowledge of the history of other teams and his forecast of our future.”

When Authenticity Does More Harm than Good

Harvard Business Review

Given management’s declared commitment to customer satisfaction and net promoter scores , I thought this a serious mistake; the move would undermine hard-won credibility and inhibit honest feedback from the firm’s smartest customers. Andrew Nguyen/HBR Staff.

How to Regain the Lost Art of Reflection

Harvard Business Review

Brain science, popularized in Daniel Kahneman’s book , has shown that this type of “slow thinking” is negatively correlated with “fast thinking,” as might be employed when driving a car or solving a simple sum. But some CEOs have managed to resist these tendencies. ” Yana Kakar, Global Managing Partner of Dalberg, reserves 3 two-hour blocks of time for reflection each week. Managing yourself Leadership Strategic thinking Digital Article

Research: Could Machine Learning Help Companies Select Better Board Directors?

Harvard Business Review

Ever since Adam Smith published The Wealth of Nations in 1776, observers have bemoaned boards of directors as being ineffective as both monitors and advisors of management. To explore that question, we conducted a study of how machine learning might be used to select board directors, and how the selected directors might differ from those selected by management. How well this approach to selecting directors will be received by management is an open question.

The Hidden Danger of Being Risk-Averse

Harvard Business Review

As Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman has written, "For most people, the fear of losing $100 is more intense than the hope of gaining $150. Economy Managing uncertainty Risk management People are generally not all that happy about risk.

3 Ways to Make Less Biased Decisions

Harvard Business Review

Similar trends have been identified in virtually every aspect of the talent management system. It not only results in lack of equity in organizations, but in poor talent management practices. Talent management Race

How to Improve Your Decision-Making Skills

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on cognitive biases, points out in an HBR article that a team that has fallen in love with its theories may unconsciously ignore or reject contradictory evidence, place too much weight on one piece of data, or make faulty comparisons to another business case that suits its bias. ” The first step, then, is to use a checklist to minimize decision biases, much like the one suggested by Kahneman.

Curiosity Is as Important as Intelligence

Harvard Business Review

but “Why are some people more able to manage complexity? In particular, there are three key psychological qualities that enhance our ability to manage complexity: . At face value, IQ tests seem quite abstract, mathematical, and disconnected from everyday life problems, yet they are a powerful tool to predict our ability to manage complexity. EQ relates to complexity management in three main ways. Managing yourself

A Checklist for Making Faster, Better Decisions

Harvard Business Review

Managers make about three billion decisions each year, and almost all of them can be made better. The stakes for doing so are real: decisions are the most powerful tool managers have for getting things done. We need a new, scalable approach to managing decision performance.

Reframe Your Strategy to Avoid Hidden Biases

Harvard Business Review

The last decade has seen an increased appreciation of behavioral economics and its effect on the practice of management. In a recent HBR article , Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony outline the questions that a decision-maker needs to ask before making a strategic bet. Their approach, however, does little to reveal the biases embedded in the assumptions held by management teams and reflected in the frameworks they use.

Identifying the Biases Behind Your Bad Decisions

Harvard Business Review

By now the message from decades of decision-making research and recent popular books such as Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow should be clear: The irrational manner in which the human brain often works influences people’s decisions in ways that they and others around them fail to anticipate. Managers can use this knowledge to improve the effectiveness of a process or system inside their organizations. We commonly think of leaders as managers.

What I Didn’t Know About Becoming a CEO

Harvard Business Review

That doesn’t mean I was a novice in promoting an idea; as a young analyst at Fidelity Investments, I needed to convince the managers of the large mutual funds to buy my stock ideas. The company I co-founded is now ten years old.

Managerial Intuition Is a Harmful Myth

Harvard Business Review

I've been learning a lot from Danny Kahneman's great book Thinking Fast and Slow. Kahneman is the world's leading expert on human judgment and decision-making and the only non-economist to be awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics (he's a psychologist by training), so his insights and conclusions should be taken seriously. Kahneman's book lays out all these hard truths in great and unignorable detail, and I've written about them a bit ( here and here , for example).

Instinct Can Beat Analytical Thinking

Harvard Business Review

This popular triumph of the “ heuristics and biases ” literature pioneered by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has made us aware of flaws that economics long glossed over, and led to interesting innovations in retirement planning and government policy. At times this belief has led the managing director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin into pretty fierce debates with his intellectual opponents.

Why We Shouldn't Bank on Growth

Harvard Business Review

Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky attributed this tendency to what they called the "availability" heuristic (rule of thumb): our minds give inordinately heavy weighting to the most readily available/recent/vivid data and experiences. China Managing uncertainty Managing yourself

What Really Makes Customers Buy a Product

Harvard Business Review

On a cold English autumn evening recently, we three found ourselves together in the bar of our business school, Cranfield School of Management , along with some clients. Managers are instantly struck by the evident importance of this neglected touchpoint.

Better Ways of Thinking About Risks

Harvard Business Review

As detailed in Daniel Kahneman's best-selling book, Thinking, Fast and Slow , it is only human to misjudge how much we know — and how much others know. Leadership Managing uncertainty Risk managementLeaders need to understand complex, uncertain dynamic environments well enough to anticipate how initiatives will fare. To that end, they must ensure that critical information is gathered and synthesized.

Life is Luck — Here’s How to Plan a Career Around It

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman has claimed the following as his favorite equation: Success = talent + luck. Kahneman’s implication is that the difference between moderate and great success is mostly luck, not skill. As a product manager, you can run quick experiments to remove uncertainty from potential projects; as a middle manager, you can sponsor more than one project to increase the probability and magnitude of success on risky projects.

How to Minimize Your Biases When Making Decisions

Harvard Business Review

Every day, senior managers are tasked with making very significant strategic decisions for their companies, which usually require support by teams of internal and external experts and a heavy dose of research. Decision making Risk management ERM