How Brexit Is Driving Our Choices In This Election

The 2019 UK general election has been billed as the Brexit election, with the various parties lining themselves up across the spectrum, from the Brexit-supporting Tory party to the remain-supporting Lib Dems.

New research from the University of Exeter shows just how influential the topic is in terms of shaping our opinions of politicians.  It shows that we’re much more likely to find a candidate interesting if they share our views on Brexit.  What’s more, this holds even when they represent a party we don’t typically back.

Not only are we more likely to back a candidate that shares our views on Brexit, but we’re also more likely to discriminate against those who don’t.  This bias continues into our views on the media, with broadcasts that run counter to our opinion viewed negatively.

Polarized world

The research saw volunteers asked to rate various statements from British politicians from across the political spectrum, including both Conservatives and Labour, leave and remain.  Each volunteer was asked to rate how interesting they found the politician and whether they would like to hear more from them.

The bias felt towards candidates who shared their Brexit position meant that people were up to 10% more positive about information from them than they would ideological opponents, even if this individual was not from a political party normally supported by the volunteer.

“We found what people think about Brexit is just a strong an indication of the extent to which they support a politician as their affiliation to a political party,” the researchers say. “Brexit identities cut across party lines, and have become a strong force that reshuffles voting in Britain. This creates more fluidity in voting behaviour and a likely fragmentation of the Westminster party system, which is otherwise known for its clear majorities.”

Political puzzle

In a second experiment, volunteers were asked to play a puzzle game, and they could select a team to help them succeed.  The results suggest people overwhelmingly selected team mates who shared their views on Brexit, even overlooking candidates that were much more qualified.

Participants were then asked to read a couple of news articles that were critical of leavers or remainers, and given the choice over whether the article should be published or not.  Worryingly, just 13% of people thought the article that opposed their own perspective should be published.

This extended into law breaking, with 77% of respondents agreeing that a transgressor should be fined when that transgressor held opposing views to them, versus just 50% when they held the same views.

“The Brexit referendum created identities that shape voter behaviour as much as party affiliations, or even more so,” the authors conclude. “However we would still not expect all voters with conflicted views to select a party only based on its Brexit position. Decisions in elections are driven also by other policy issues, by the appeal of the lead candidates, and tactical considerations related to the first-past-the-post electoral system of the UK.”

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