Future Scenario Planning

Leading Strategies

The truth is, nobody can precisely predict the future but we can get an idea with a handy improvement tool called “future scenario planning.” You can use scenario planning personally, in a work group or for an entire organization. As a boss, you could choose to use scenario planning to find out more about retention and morale. Future scenario planning is a natural way to consider what might happen “out there” for these and many other possibilities.

CIOs: Scenario Planning Can Save Your Job

Harvard Business Review

It''s the rare CIO who applies scenario planning to the business of IT. Yet, in a function driven by innovation and the uncertainties surrounding the application and implication of future technologies, not using scenarios is tantamount to management malpractice.

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Business Scenario Planning

Leading Strategies

The truth is, nobody can precisely predict the future but we can get an idea with a handy improvement tool called “future scenario planning.” You can use scenario planning personally, in a work group or for an entire organization. As a boss, you could choose to use scenario planning to find out more about retention and morale. Future scenario planning is a natural way to consider what might happen “out there” for these and many other possibilities.

Exploring Alternate Futures Can Help Identify Future Leaders

N2Growth Blog

Scenarios and scenario-based planning are widely recognized as valuable tools in setting organizations’ visions and strategies. Shell is the most famed for their scenarios and their process for developing them and using them.

An Exercise to Get Your Team Thinking Differently About the Future

Harvard Business Review

A way around this fallacy, we’ve found, is a speed-dating version of scenario planning, one that takes hours rather than months. Obviously, a brief workshop like this one shouldn’t be used to shape strategy; that requires true scenario planning.

Reimagining the Boardroom for an Age of Virtual Reality and AI

Harvard Business Review

Examples include collaboration platforms such as MeetX , Virtualboardroom , Diligent , and Boardpad.) Boards challenge their executives to get with the digital age — but many haven’t followed their own good advice.

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Business Model Generation : Blog | Executive Coaching | CO2 Partners

CO2

The Empathy Map looks like this: In this chapter the authors walk you through processes to arrive a enhanced design like Customer Insights, ideation, providing an introduction to the value of visual thinking, how to use prototyping, story telling, and Scenario Planning. RSS Feed Schedule a Call Free E-Book Assessment Test Coffee Schedule Coaching Lunch About Us CO2 Story Our Approach Our Successes Our Executive Coaches Gary B.

4 Strategies for Women Navigating Office Politics

Harvard Business Review

Let planning trump politics. An intrepid energy industry executive we know takes a novel, planning-based approach to managing politics, and we’ve taught the same method to many female executives over the years.

Mindfulness Can Improve Strategy, Too

Harvard Business Review

Practically speaking, can organizational leaders integrate mindfulness practices into strategic planning processes? So how can organizations bring more space to strategic planning? But it’s also possible to build mindfulness directly into planning exercises.

What a Good Moonshot Is Really For

Harvard Business Review

They''re a keystone of what we call a "future-back" approach to strategy, which unlike the "present forward" nature of most strategic-planning processes, doesn''t operate under the assumption that tomorrow will be pretty much like today, and the day after pretty much more of the same. At the heart of the future-back process is a consensus view of your company''s desired future state.This isn''t scenario planning, where you consider a range of possibilities.

Six Classes Your Employer Wishes You Could Take

Harvard Business Review

Scenarios. Scenario planning is as essential for strategy formulation as it is for the design of next generation technologies and industries. Thinking in terms of scenarios forces people to rigorously examine fundamental assumptions and unexpected risks.

Navigating the Complexities of Doing Business in Russia

Harvard Business Review

For example, in 2014, at the onset of the sharp deterioration in U.S.-Russian In many cases, people have to bear more costs directly – for example to pay for more of their own healthcare – which also limits their spending power. This will likely continue to make business planning even more difficult. These can be laid out in scenario plans with specific mitigation actions assigned to help businesses react quickly if necessary.

ExxonMobil’s Shareholder Vote Is a Tipping Point for Climate Issues

Harvard Business Review

Such a move might create inertia for some companies and investors if they see it as evidence that “business as usual” is now the most likely climate scenario. We witnessed a monumental event in a shareholder resolution calling on ExxonMobil, the world’s biggest publicly listed energy company, to disclose the impact on its business under a 2-degree scenario. Last week the world listened as Donald Trump announced, ‘We are out,’ proclaiming the U.S.

A Better Approach to Infrastructure Planning

Harvard Business Review

But in terms of their objectives and planning horizons, there is often a yawning gap between these private and public sector players. It is not hard to see why the two sides find it challenging to confer about infrastructure needs – much less participate in each other’s planning processes. It’s difficult for the public sector to coordinate planning across regions and modes. This makes scenario planning an effective approach for long-range freight transportation planning.

The Olympics as a Story of Risk Management

Harvard Business Review

A terrorist incident, a breakdown of the London rail system, power blackouts, volcanic ash clouds , flooding, an outbreak of infectious disease—the London organizing committee (LOCOG) and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) spent years thinking about every scenario they could imagine. Simulations of security incidents were rehearsed, and contingency plans for mass evacuations or emergency situations were put in place.

Be Prepared for What You Don't See Coming

Harvard Business Review

For example, sometimes when a senior manager makes a request, it causes a cascade of activity that is far beyond what she intended. To minimize their negative impact, there are two steps that managers can take: Plan ahead (as much as you can). One way to reinforce this assumption is to engage in scenario planning before pulling the trigger, preferably by engaging people who will be affected by the change.

What a Changing NAFTA Could Mean for Doing Business in Mexico

Harvard Business Review

While consumer spending has proven resilient, with same-store retail sales rising 6% YOY in April , most multinational corporations are developing contingency plans to mitigate risks to their businesses and reassessing the country’s role in their global market portfolio and supply chains. Most Mexico country managers believe one of the following scenarios is likely: A long period of populist-driven uncertainty.

China’s Slowdown: The First Stage of the Bullwhip Effect

Harvard Business Review

The essence of the phenomenon is the fact that each stage in the supply chain plans its capital projects and operations, including inventory levels, based on its future expectations. For example , U.S. Demand forecasting may become more challenging as demand patterns change, and companies may be advised to look into forecasting methods based on scenario planning rather than historical patterns.

Get Ready for the New Era of Global Manufacturing

Harvard Business Review

McKinsey has identified more than 20 distinct submarkets in China, for example. Advanced economies, for example, depend more on high-skill talent to support what we call "global innovation for local markets" in industries such as pharmaceuticals and autos.

Create a Strategy That Anticipates and Learns

Harvard Business Review

The restaurant chain, Olive Garden, uses predictive analytics to guide its food buying and retail staffing plans. Consider, for example, the work that Apple is doing with Epic (an electronic health record provider for hospitals and large medical groups). This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning. The buzz around using predictive tools to analyze big data in discrete areas of a business is loud and deserved.

The G-20 is 2011's Biggest Political Risk

Harvard Business Review

For example, when it comes to preparation for a possible showdown involving North Korea, there has been no discussion or scenario planning between American and Chinese top brass — not a recipe for good crisis management. David Gordon is the head of research at Eurasia Group and former director of policy planning at the U.S.

Living in a Radical State of Uncertainty

Harvard Business Review

Few, if any, such models contain examples of what we are seeing in Japan and increasingly, around the world — not one, not even two, but three overlapping natural as well as human catastrophies occurring at the same time, overlapping to generate entirely new, unforseen outcomes. For example, in Japan, the utility company believed its nuclear problem was water — not enough water to cool the reactors and ponds.

Setting Strategy in Egypt's (and Other) Shifting Sands: A Four-Part Approach

Harvard Business Review

Consultants came to their assistance with solutions to short-term concerns ranging from moving out cash to halting expansion plans. Instead, managers should develop their strategic responses to political transitions using a four-step process: First, managers need to develop transition scenarios for the countries in which operate — even relating to the unlikely or low-probability events. In terms of scenario planning , firms would think about alternative paths.