Covid-19 has shattered the demand forecasts that guide retailers and suppliers of consumer goods and services in figuring out how much to order or manufacture, where to stock inventory, and how much to advertise or discount. Early on during the pandemic, sudden lockdowns and a shift to working from home caused panic buying of many food items and household goods. Some items sold out while others languished on shelves.
Predicting Consumer Demand in an Unpredictable World
Don’t abandon forecast modeling. Just change how you do it.
November 26, 2020
Summary.
Predicting consumer demand for goods and services during the Covid-19 pandemic is more complicated than ever. To improve prediction, managers must abandon their biases and seek out new data sets for forecast models, tap local-market knowledge, combine the outputs of many different models, and continually test and refine them.
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HBR Learning
Marketing Essentials Course
Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Marketing Essentials. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Learn how to communicate with your customers—strategically.