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When a Simple Rule of Thumb Beats a Fancy Algorithm

Harvard Business Review

For a retailer, it’s extremely useful to know whether a customer will be back or has abandoned you for good. But as the amount of data that retailers are able to collect grows and the predictive models keep improving, the models will inevitably become markedly better at predicting customer behavior than simple rules.

Simon 11
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When a Simple Rule of Thumb Beats a Fancy Algorithm

Harvard Business Review

For a retailer, it’s extremely useful to know whether a customer will be back or has abandoned you for good. But as the amount of data that retailers are able to collect grows and the predictive models keep improving, the models will inevitably become markedly better at predicting customer behavior than simple rules.

Simon 8
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How Good Was Steve Jobs, Really?

Harvard Business Review

And Apple's share performance skyrocketed between the time we compiled the data and when he stepped down on August 24, 2011. Jobs' final scorecard for his entire tenure from 1997 to 2011 is: Country-adjusted total shareholder return: 6,682%. Adjusted for share issues, repurchase, and dividends (excluding for 2011).

CEO 13
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What U.S. E-Commerce Can Learn from Its Global Copycats

Harvard Business Review

Every new market I look at seems to have an Amazon-style copycat — a website that looks, functions, and sells products a lot like a well-known online retailer. E-retailers in these emerging markets are today confronting a number of fundamental issues, a large one being trust. also in 2001 ) and India ( Bazee in 2004 ).

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The Peanut Butter and Jelly Approach to Growth

Harvard Business Review

For 2011, it all added up to $4.8 In 2001, Smucker's acquired Jif and Crisco from P&G, which no longer saw them as a strategic fit. Smucker's impressive annual results cap a decade in which the 4,500-employee firm achieved compound annual revenue growth of 23% and per-share earnings growth of 14%. billion in sales.

Brand 13
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The Idealistic Realistic: What Really Helped Elevate Campbell Soup Company

Harvard Business Review

When I stepped in to run the Campbell Soup Company in 2001, the environment at Campbell was hugely challenging. As of 2011, the story is far different: 17 Campbell employees are actively engaged for every 1 employee who is actively disengaged. Perhaps you've heard the story. We'd lost half of our market value in just one year.

Company 14
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The Rising Tide Lifts One Boat Most of All

Harvard Business Review

Everyone is familiar with the primary methods Gillette used to grow: It innovated via technology (with the Sensor, Mach 3, and Fusion razors), and in 2001 it formally expanded into the women''s leg shaving market with a new brand called Venus. For decades, the shaving market was men''s facial hair removal.

Price 8