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China’s Slowdown: The First Stage of the Bullwhip Effect

Harvard Business Review

For the last two months, global supply chains have been experiencing the first stage of a bullwhip effect triggered by uncertainties about the severity of China’s economic slowdown. In the context of a normal economy with modest demand volatility, the bullwhip effect causes volatility to vary across the tiers of a supply chain.

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Living in a Radical State of Uncertainty

Harvard Business Review

As a result, the risk-reward ratios that we take for granted, such tight global supply chains, may no longer make sense. The kind of thinking generated by scenario planning, video/war-gaming, and design thinking need to move from the margins of corporations and government organizations to core strategic positions.

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The Olympics as a Story of Risk Management

Harvard Business Review

Other mega-events have sometimes taken their toll in business disruption, by interrupting supply chains, altering consumption, or giving rise to workforce absenteeism. Ensuring readiness for Games-time (in Olympic-speak) now involves strategic pre-emption through stress-testing and scenario planning.

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Get Ready for the New Era of Global Manufacturing

Harvard Business Review

According to recent McKinsey research (see " The $30 Trillion Decathlon "), consumption by developing economies could rise from $12 trillion annually in 2010 to $30 trillion in 2025, by which time these markets could account for nearly 70% of global demand for manufactured goods. The Dynamics of Global Manufacturing Are Shifting.