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Why We Shouldn't Bank on Growth

Harvard Business Review

Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky attributed this tendency to what they called the "availability" heuristic (rule of thumb): our minds give inordinately heavy weighting to the most readily available/recent/vivid data and experiences. A final example comes from the domain of career management.

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The Hidden Danger of Being Risk-Averse

Harvard Business Review

Amos Tversky and I] concluded from many such observations that ''losses loom larger than gains'' and that people are loss averse.". One of the most famous risk-takers in recent memory is JP Morgan''s "London Whale," Bruno Iksil, who doubled down on a losing bet rather than admit his losses, ultimately costing the bank over six billion.

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Instinct Can Beat Analytical Thinking

Harvard Business Review

This popular triumph of the “ heuristics and biases ” literature pioneered by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has made us aware of flaws that economics long glossed over, and led to interesting innovations in retirement planning and government policy. Risk modeling in the banks grew out of probability theory.