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Your Judgment of Risk Is Compromised

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky provide perhaps the best theoretical framework in which to understand the phenomenon. MORE ON MANAGING RISKY BEHAVIORS. Embracing Risk in Career Decisions. In this territory, you must therefore abandon all recourse to epistemic feelings, and rely completely on your calculator.

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Why We Shouldn't Bank on Growth

Harvard Business Review

Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky attributed this tendency to what they called the "availability" heuristic (rule of thumb): our minds give inordinately heavy weighting to the most readily available/recent/vivid data and experiences. A final example comes from the domain of career management.

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Keep Experts on Tap, Not on Top

Harvard Business Review

The psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky demonstrated quite convincingly that we human beings are not the model-optimizing "rational" actors that many economists historically believed we are. Those who see the world probabilistically seem to better navigate volatile environments because they are wired to embrace uncertainty.

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Why Companies Are Betting Against Big Ideas

Harvard Business Review

This idea of prospect theory, developed by Tversky and Kahneman and reported in a classic 1979 article (for which the Nobel prize was awarded) demonstrated that individuals do not make decisions rationally by selecting options with the highest expected value, because they are risk-averse and 'losses loom larger than gains.'.

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Instinct Can Beat Analytical Thinking

Harvard Business Review

This popular triumph of the “ heuristics and biases ” literature pioneered by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has made us aware of flaws that economics long glossed over, and led to interesting innovations in retirement planning and government policy. What’s the problem with the way that turkey approached risk management?