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Why Rational People Can’t Succeed as Economic Forecasters

Harvard Business Review

Bullock and Warren Persons of the Harvard Economic Service, who are almost completely forgotten now but briefly wielded global influence. Babson really believes in historical trends. He’s just a trend analyst. Fisher doesn’t think trends are important at all; instead he believes in causation. They’re completely useless.

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The 5 Requirements of a Truly Innovative Company

Harvard Business Review

Likewise, no matter how slick your company’s online idea market, it won’t yield many high-value ideas if your associates haven’t been taught to think like innovators. Harness underappreciated trends. In our experience, it can take several months for a company to hammer out its defini­tion of innovation.

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The Behavioral Science Behind the Negative TV Ads of Trump and Clinton

Harvard Business Review

The first half of the ad hammers this home by saying: “Illegal immigrants convicted of committing crimes get to stay, collecting social security benefits—skipping the line.” But beyond each individual election, the long-term trend is clearly negative. In a series of conversations leading up to the U.S.