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The Surprising Power of Business Experiments

Skip Prichard

Despite all of that, the best, most carefully crafted plans may fail miserably. Daniel Kahneman. And, as anyone who closely follows simulation and prototyping tools knows, their use has become pervasive in manufacturing businesses, even though companies still grapple with the integration and management issues I wrote about in 2003.

Power 94
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Paul J.H. Schoemaker: A second interview by Bob Morris

First Friday Book Synopsis

Schoemaker is a pioneer in the field of decision sciences, among the first to combine the practical ideas of decision theory, behavioral economics, scenario planning, and risk management into a set of strategic decision-making tools for managers.

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Can Being Overconfident Make You a Better Leader?

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman, the 2002 Nobel prize laureate and psychologist, has said that if he had a magic wand, he’d eliminate it. Our first challenge was to answer the question: How do we separate the merely confident managers from the overconfident variety? Most of us think of overconfidence as a bad thing.

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Instinct Can Beat Analytical Thinking

Harvard Business Review

This popular triumph of the “ heuristics and biases ” literature pioneered by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has made us aware of flaws that economics long glossed over, and led to interesting innovations in retirement planning and government policy. But the same managers would never admit this in public.