Assessing the Current Risks to the U.S. Economy

Russia invaded Ukraine just as pressures on the U.S. economy appeared to have peaked.

by

and

Martin Reeves

by

and

Martin Reeves

March 14, 2022

skodonnell/Getty Images

Summary.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine occurred just as pressures in the U.S. economy appeared to be peaking, and the prospects of a soft landing were good. The days, weeks, and months ahead will bring more clarity about how it impacts the U.S. economic cycle. A recession is not a foregone conclusion, and companies should stay flexible, reassessing their outlooks and tactics as events unfold.

Before Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, the outlook for the U.S. economy was stressed but hopeful. Pandemic pressures appeared to be peaking, inflation was widely expected to normalize, and the Fed stood a credible chance of engineering a “soft landing.”

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is a managing director and partner in BCG’s New York office and the firm’s global chief economist. He is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).
Paul Swartz is an executive director and senior economist in the BCG Henderson Institute, based in BCG’s New York office. He is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).
Martin Reeves is the chairman of Boston Consulting Group’s BCG Henderson Institute in San Francisco and a coauthor of The Imagination Machine (Harvard Business Review Press, 2021).

Assessing the Current Risks to the U.S. Economy

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