The Planning Fallacy and the Innovator's Dilemma
Harvard Business Review
AUGUST 1, 2012
The basic concept , first presented by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman and his partner Amos Tversky in an influential 1979 paper, is that human beings are astonishingly bad at estimating how long it will take to complete tasks. How about new product introductions? There are certainly outliers. But the basic pattern continues.
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