Why Rational People Can’t Succeed as Economic Forecasters
Harvard Business Review
FEBRUARY 21, 2014
What effect does it have if we innovate? That sounds a lot like Philip Tetlock’s hedgehogs and foxes , where the people who keep hammering at it and don’t care if their forecasts are wrong are more likely to be wrong. He’s just a trend analyst. Fisher doesn’t think trends are important at all; instead he believes in causation.
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