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When Human Judgment Works Well, and When it Doesn’t

Harvard Business Review

In a meta-analysis conducted by William Grove and colleagues of 136 research studies, for example, expert judgments were clearly better than their purely data-driven equivalents in only eight cases. Anesthesiologists are therefore in a better position to develop useful intuitive skills.” Why is this?

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Ethical Consumerism Isn’t Dead, It Just Needs Better Marketing

Harvard Business Review

Ethical consumerism is the broad label for companies providing products that appeal to people’s best selves (for example, fair trade coffee or a purchase that includes a donation to a charitable cause). ” I understand the attraction to markets and their efficiency; I am a marketing professor.

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Why Companies Are Betting Against Big Ideas

Harvard Business Review

This idea of prospect theory, developed by Tversky and Kahneman and reported in a classic 1979 article (for which the Nobel prize was awarded) demonstrated that individuals do not make decisions rationally by selecting options with the highest expected value, because they are risk-averse and 'losses loom larger than gains.'.

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How to Improve Your Decision-Making Skills

Harvard Business Review

Should we bring product A or B to market? Which marketing strategy should we use? ” The first step, then, is to use a checklist to minimize decision biases, much like the one suggested by Kahneman. For example, key management, sales, customers and other experts should be involved. Why is that?

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Reframe Your Strategy to Avoid Hidden Biases

Harvard Business Review

In a recent HBR article , Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony outline the questions that a decision-maker needs to ask before making a strategic bet. These biases arise from what Kahneman and his long-time research partner Amos Tversky call framing. These will often be the ones that appeal less.

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Why Western Digital Firms Have Failed in China

Harvard Business Review

However, they have all failed in China, the world’s largest digital market. Google, for example, has succeeded in dominating many foreign markets that have radically different political systems and cultures (including Indonesia, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia). imposing technological platforms developed for the U.S.

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Can Being Overconfident Make You a Better Leader?

Harvard Business Review

When Apple CEO Steve Jobs approached AT&T about partnering on a new kind of mobile phone — a touchscreen computer that would fit in your pocket — Apple had no expertise in the mobile market. Daniel Kahneman, the 2002 Nobel prize laureate and psychologist, has said that if he had a magic wand, he’d eliminate it.