article thumbnail

The Business Lessons of the Belmont Stakes

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman , a renowned psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in economics, developed this concept in the 1970s along with his collaborator, Amos Tversky. Since 1950, only 3 of 21 have managed the feat, and none have done so since 1978. He's good, just not worth the price. That's about a 40% rate. But it gets worse.

Beyer 14
article thumbnail

The Business Lessons of the Belmont Stakes

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman , a renowned psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in economics, developed this concept in the 1970s along with his collaborator, Amos Tversky. Since 1950, only 3 of 21 have managed the feat, and none have done so since 1978. He's good, just not worth the price. That's about a 40% rate. But it gets worse.

Beyer 10
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Reframe Your Strategy to Avoid Hidden Biases

Harvard Business Review

The last decade has seen an increased appreciation of behavioral economics and its effect on the practice of management. Their approach, however, does little to reveal the biases embedded in the assumptions held by management teams and reflected in the frameworks they use.

article thumbnail

Why We Shouldn't Bank on Growth

Harvard Business Review

Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky attributed this tendency to what they called the "availability" heuristic (rule of thumb): our minds give inordinately heavy weighting to the most readily available/recent/vivid data and experiences. That seems like a good bet; since the IPO, Facebook's share price has fallen meaningfully.

article thumbnail

Why Those Guys Won the Economics Nobels

Harvard Business Review

The prizes were awarded “for their empirical analysis of asset prices,” but what the three had been doing looked from the outside less like a common endeavor than a not-all-that-coherent argument. So I wanted to see if Campbell could make sense of the prizes and the current state of academic knowledge about asset prices.

CAPM 8
article thumbnail

Keep Experts on Tap, Not on Top

Harvard Business Review

The psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky demonstrated quite convincingly that we human beings are not the model-optimizing "rational" actors that many economists historically believed we are. Those who see the world probabilistically seem to better navigate volatile environments because they are wired to embrace uncertainty.