Using probability, it is easy to see that if you have a large enough population doing things in a mediocre way for a long enough time, you’ll always get some streaks — think monkeys, typewriters, and Shakespeare. And it’s also readily observable that performance streaks are everywhere: We have Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, Paul the Octopus’s seven-game prediction streak for Germany’s games in the 2010 World Cup, Ken Jenning’s 74-game Jeopardy streak, and Bill Miller’s 15-year streak when his mutual fund beat the S&P 500.
Streaks, from Joltin’ Joe to Mutual Fund Managers
Using probability, it is easy to see that if you have a large enough population doing things in a mediocre way for a long enough time, you’ll always get some streaks — think monkeys, typewriters, and Shakespeare. And it’s also readily observable that performance streaks are everywhere: We have Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, Paul […]
February 21, 2011
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Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Time Management. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Make smarter, more purposeful choices about how you spend your day.