Few managers today would trust a single analyst to predict the future. We know that individuals are biased. People make mistakes. They have bad days. But we put a great deal of trust in the “wisdom of the crowd,” the idea that aggregating predictions across a group of qualified people will result in better predictions. As it turns out, though, crowd predictions are also bad – just in different ways.
The ‘Wisdom of the Crowd’ Has a Pretty Bad Track Record at Predicting Jobs Reports
Aggregation gets rid of some errors and reinforces others.
July 08, 2016
New!
HBR Learning
Digital Intelligence Course
Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Digital Intelligence . Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Excel in a world that's being continually transformed by technology.
Learn More & See All Courses
New!
HBR Learning
Digital Intelligence Course
Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Digital Intelligence . Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Excel in a world that's being continually transformed by technology.