In Silicon Valley, everyone makes bets. Founders bet years of their lives on finding product market fit, investors bet billions on the future value of ambitious startups, and executives bet that their strategies will increase a company’s prospects. Here, predicting the future is not a theoretical superpower, it’s part of the job.
How Our Company Learned to Make Better Predictions About Everything
It’s a skill that can be taught.
May 15, 2017
Summary.
We all make bets about the future, whether we call them that or not. We select a career based on perceptions about its prospects; we take on projects based on what we think we can accomplish; we hire employees based on how we predict they will perform. We don’t have an option not to make predictions in our work lives, but we do have an option to try and make better ones. At Twitch, employees have worked to create a culture of forecasting based on the research of Philip Tetlock. Although employees were skeptical at first, most have come to embrace the practice of making frequent numerical forecasts.
New!
HBR Learning
Decision Making Course
Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Decision Making. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Practical ways to improve your decision-making process.
Learn More & See All Courses
New!
HBR Learning
Decision Making Course
Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Decision Making. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Practical ways to improve your decision-making process.