Much of the failure of long-term strategizing arises not from its difficulty but from confusion about how to do it. When hard strategic choices loom, executives ask their experts what the future will look like. The experts — middle management, analysts, engineers, consultants — aren’t asked to provide a comprehensive view of possible futures and their probability of occurring. They’re asked for a description of a single future or several possible futures for consideration.
You Can’t Make Good Predictions Without Embracing Uncertainty
One company’s probabilistic approach.
May 18, 2016
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Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Decision Making. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Practical ways to improve your decision-making process.