Expecting the Unexpected: Meet Unpredictability with Agility and Adaptability
The Practical Leader
JANUARY 11, 2023
Gardner also quotes Scott Armstrong, “an expert on forecasting at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania” on his “seer-sucker theory: No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers.”. Tetlock then correlated their level of fame to the accuracy of their forecast.
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