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When a Simple Rule of Thumb Beats a Fancy Algorithm

Harvard Business Review

Starting in the late 1980s , academic researchers began to develop sophisticated predictive techniques to answer that question. Even Simon acknowledged that, as computers became more powerful and predictive models more sophisticated, heuristics might lose ground in business.

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Why Leaders Need to Think More Like Professional Gamblers

Leading Blog

Many years later, French mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace developed Bayes’s idea into a powerful theory, which we now know as the Bayes Theorem. Bayes is relevant to modern leaders because it can help them develop an approach to uncertainty that is less deterministic and more probabilistic. Here is a simple explanation of it.

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article thumbnail

When a Simple Rule of Thumb Beats a Fancy Algorithm

Harvard Business Review

Starting in the late 1980s , academic researchers began to develop sophisticated predictive techniques to answer that question. Even Simon acknowledged that, as computers became more powerful and predictive models more sophisticated, heuristics might lose ground in business.

Simon 8
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2013 Trends and The Power of Women

Women on Business

Guest Post By: Andrea Simon, PhD., president of Simon Associates Management Consultants. They’re starting totally virtual companies, using the cloud for solutions and developing innovative ways to manage staff, time, family and work. About the Author: A cultural anthropologist, Andrea Simon, Ph.D.,

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What an Economist Brings to a Business Strategy

Harvard Business Review

Consider first the increasing use of auctions, which have a distinguished history in the development of economics. Many large banks, other financial institutions and some large manufacturing companies also had their own economic staffs. Here a few notable examples. But that would be a mistake. This has all changed.

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How Could I Miss That? Jamie Dimon on the Hot Seat

Harvard Business Review

It's easy to assume that Jamie Dimon, the accomplished CEO of JPMorgan Chase, was simply stonewalling when he claimed that mounting trading losses in his bank were "blown out of proportion" — that he was unaware of how grave the situation really was. But I believe that Dimon literally didn't see perceive disaster unfolding before him.

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The Promise of a Truly Entrepreneurial Society

Harvard Business Review

It is questionable, for example, whether many thousands of pages of regulations have enhanced the banks’ ability to carry out their core mission of funding the real economy of goods and services for real human beings. The entrepreneurial society. This entrepreneurial success story has not happened overnight.