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Why Rational People Can’t Succeed as Economic Forecasters

Harvard Business Review

Download this podcast. That sounds a lot like Philip Tetlock’s hedgehogs and foxes , where the people who keep hammering at it and don’t care if their forecasts are wrong are more likely to be wrong. I interviewed Friedman about his book for an HBR Ideacast , which you can listen to below. There’s a lot of failure in your book.