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Marketing

Stop Trying to Predict Which New Products Will Succeed

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 15, 2014

Is market performance predictable for a specific product or class of products? respectively, suggesting that market risk is the major driver of our inability to predict. Look at the variance of your new-market products. Though there are multiple types of prediction, the gold standard is the prediction of precise outcomes.

Black-Scholes

Black-Scholes Productivity Products CAPM

Why Those Guys Won the Economics Nobels

Harvard Business Review

APRIL 2, 2014

Back in the ‘60s, people developed the capital asset pricing model [CAPM] as a way to do that. You’d have this beta with the market, so you have the riskless rate plus beta times the equity premium. That’s still widely taught in business-school classes and it’s easy for people to understand. [A That’s kind of a deep insight.

CAPM

CAPM Discount Price Finance

Stop Trying to Predict Which New Products Will Succeed

Why Those Guys Won the Economics Nobels

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