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Stop Trying to Predict Which New Products Will Succeed

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 15, 2014

When is it possible to predict a product’s success? How you answer this question may be the most important factor in how you design your product development process — and, ultimately, in whether your business succeeds or fails. Is market performance predictable for a specific product or class of products?

Black-Scholes 8
Black-Scholes Productivity Products CAPM 8
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What the Great Fama-Shiller Debate Has Taught Us

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 14, 2013

I think he got the Nobel nod (instead of somebody like Andy Lo , or Mordechai Kurz , or Roman Frydman ) because he was (1) very early to the game, (2) a macroeconomist (the Nobel people generally seem more comfortable with macro than with finance), and (3) most suited to being shoehorned into a narrative of steady scientific progress.

CAPM 8
CAPM Finance Price Uncertainty 8
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