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Stop Trying to Predict Which New Products Will Succeed

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 15, 2014

When is it possible to predict a product’s success? How you answer this question may be the most important factor in how you design your product development process — and, ultimately, in whether your business succeeds or fails. Is market performance predictable for a specific product or class of products?

Black-Scholes 8
Black-Scholes Productivity Products CAPM 8
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What the Great Fama-Shiller Debate Has Taught Us

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 14, 2013

It’s also possible that Hansen just got the prize because his work is so great and/or has spawned lots of productive further research, but I’m really in not in a position to judge that — his stuff is really dense. The way to test this, Fama said, was in conjunction with a theory of “market equilibrium under uncertainty.”

CAPM 8
CAPM Finance Price Uncertainty 8
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