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The Planning Fallacy and the Innovator's Dilemma

Harvard Business Review

"You have to deliver $300 million in incremental growth by 2015," the business unit head told the leader of his innovation team. But anyone with near-term innovation targets with nine (or six or even four) digits in them should ensure they are familiar with the concept of "planning fallacy.". Then early results disappoint.

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Instinct Can Beat Analytical Thinking

Harvard Business Review

This popular triumph of the “ heuristics and biases ” literature pioneered by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has made us aware of flaws that economics long glossed over, and led to interesting innovations in retirement planning and government policy. System one, system two doesn’t even ask this.