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Stop Trying to Predict Which New Products Will Succeed

Harvard Business Review

When is it possible to predict a product’s success? And products that are more successful than predicted can be even worse: we’re unable to deliver to customers, both losing potential revenue and compromising our reputation for other products as well. Is market performance predictable for a specific product or class of products?

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Big Data's Human Component

Harvard Business Review

This was the insight that made Michael Greenbaum, Edmund and Williams O'Connor — the fathers of modern financial derivatives — so successful. Any fool, or mortgage banker, can use a spreadsheet and calculate a Black-Scholes equation.

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The Comparing Trap

Harvard Business Review

He and two other economists created the trading process called Black-Scholes that impacted the ways financial markets were informed and influenced. No matter how successful we are and how many goals we achieve, this trap causes us to recalibrate our accomplishments and reset the bar for how we define success.

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What an Economist Brings to a Business Strategy

Harvard Business Review

Two well-known companies have also made auctions famous, and economists have played central roles in the success of each. Many economists since have been hired by the U.S. and other governments to help them design these often complicated auctions and by telecommunications companies trying to figure out the best strategies for bidding.