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The Microfinance Contagion Scenario

Harvard Business Review

But as information trickles out about how bad the repayment situation in AP is, a plausible global contagion scenario is emerging. That's not to say it's likely, but it is certainly possible and a threat that social investors of all stripes should be thinking about how to defuse. Although the situation in AP remains fluid, one thing hasn't changed over the last few months: repayment rates have fallen to about 10%. But just rescheduling debt payments may not be enough.