Harvard Business Review
AUGUST 1, 2012
The basic concept , first presented by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman and his partner Amos Tversky in an influential 1979 paper, is that human beings are astonishingly bad at estimating how long it will take to complete tasks. To get through the corporate approval gauntlet you have to project big numbers. The average actual cost?
Harvard Business Review
JANUARY 3, 2013
Most predictably, cost overruns; this is, after all, a government project. Concurrency was supposed to speed up the F-35's development. With "the world's most expensive fighter jet" now coming under additional budget scrutiny, National Public Radio highlighted the hurdles that the program has run into. Then there's the testing.
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Harvard Business Review
FEBRUARY 29, 2012
This idea of prospect theory, developed by Tversky and Kahneman and reported in a classic 1979 article (for which the Nobel prize was awarded) demonstrated that individuals do not make decisions rationally by selecting options with the highest expected value, because they are risk-averse and 'losses loom larger than gains.'.
Harvard Business Review
JUNE 20, 2014
This popular triumph of the “ heuristics and biases ” literature pioneered by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has made us aware of flaws that economics long glossed over, and led to interesting innovations in retirement planning and government policy. It is not, however, the only lens through which to view decision-making.
Harvard Business Review
APRIL 2, 2014
Campbell’s work has also made liberal use of the analytic tools developed by Hansen. Back in the ‘60s, people developed the capital asset pricing model [CAPM] as a way to do that. It feels like it’s got a little bit of Kahneman and Tversky in it. You’re going to have to take a worst reasonable case.
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