Untangling Skill and Luck
Harvard Business Review
FEBRUARY 7, 2011
Any system that combines skill and luck will revert to the mean over time. Take, for instance, a group of companies that currently have high returns on invested capital (ROIC). If you follow that group over time, you would see their ROICs revert back toward the cost of capital. Reversion to the mean. Paying for randomness.
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