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Markets: Understand the Present to Forecast the Future (Part 2)

Coaching Tip

Alexandra Lienhard : So, as editor of the Financial Forecast and the Short-Term Update , what's the goal with the services you provide? He wanted to step back a bit from the day-to-day market commentary and incorporate the views of socionomics into what he was writing about. Steve : Thank you. .

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The Best-Performing Emerging Economies Emphasize Competition

Harvard Business Review

Development economists over the ages have puzzled about why some emerging economies perform much better than others over the long term. The short answer we find from our research is: No. For our research , we looked at 71 emerging economies and identified 18 that achieved rapid and consistent GDP growth over the past 50 and 20 years.

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Does Your Company Have What It Takes to Go Global?

Harvard Business Review

” Despite positive market indicators and careful planning, international-entry initiatives often fall short. This finding was consistent and robust across industries, headquarters locations, international expansion markets, and company size.

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Why Multinationals Are Doubling Down on Russia

Harvard Business Review

And while two years of shrinking GDP growth , sanctions , and a volatile ruble have led some companies like GM to leave the market, there has not been a large-scale exodus of MNCs from Russia. For multinational firms, Russia’s attractiveness lies primarily in the size and sophistication of its market.

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A CEO’s Guide to Navigating Brexit

Harvard Business Review

Here, too, the directional impact has been analyzed credibly, with estimates ranging from 3%–9% of GDP loss. It is impossible to forecast precise impact with confidence, given that exit terms, timing, and knock-on implications are all uncertain. Keep talking about progress against goals. For example, a U.S. Run scenarios.

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We All Work at Enron Now

Harvard Business Review

And is that, perhaps, the prime mover of what both Tyler Cowen and I have termed a Great Stagnation? Incentives shape human behavior — and overcounting benefits and undercounting costs is a surefire way to blunt our incentives to innovate, to take on ambitious goals, and create real value. Let's call it Enronia, for short.

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How to Quantify Sustainability’s Impact on Your Bottom Line

Harvard Business Review

But we recognize that, in many businesses, resources are often allocated according to short-term, bottom-line pressures. of the world market, and the second-largest beef producer and consumer. The industry makes up approximately 6% of Brazil’s GDP. Brazil’s Beef Industry.