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How to Improve Your Decision-Making Skills

Harvard Business Review

Should we bring product A or B to market? Which marketing strategy should we use? ” The first step, then, is to use a checklist to minimize decision biases, much like the one suggested by Kahneman. In this case, you have to change your expectation, not your marketing strategy. Why is that?

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When Human Judgment Works Well, and When it Doesn’t

Harvard Business Review

A number of people noted that Nobel prize-winner Daniel Kahneman’s work, nicely summarized in his 2011 book Thinking Fast and Slow , influenced their thinking a great deal. For our purposes here, Chapter 22 is paydirt. It’s titled “Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It?”

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How to Know If a Spin-Off Will Succeed

Harvard Business Review

The first category is exogenous factors over which the business has little control: the growth of the markets into which it sells; the competitive intensity and thus the average profitability of the industry in which it operates; or the fragmentation of its industry and thus the scope for a growth-by-acquisition approach.

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After a Blizzard, What's a Fair Price for a Shovel?

Harvard Business Review

To be clear, this is not an issue of how to set prices in a life-threatening situation (e.g., For instance, if price is held steady, is it fair that those who show up right when the store opens get to purchase at less than the market clearing price? In a Canadian telephone survey, Kahneman et al. Should you raise price?".

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The Hidden Indicators of a Failing Project

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman, in his book Thinking Fast and Slow , recounts a bit of a planning pickle he and his Israeli Ministry of Education colleagues encountered when estimating how long it would take to complete a high school textbook on judgment and decision making. government! all of these things!), ” Cast a Wide Knowledge Net.

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Why Western Digital Firms Have Failed in China

Harvard Business Review

However, they have all failed in China, the world’s largest digital market. Google, for example, has succeeded in dominating many foreign markets that have radically different political systems and cultures (including Indonesia, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia). market on China. market on China.

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Can Being Overconfident Make You a Better Leader?

Harvard Business Review

When Apple CEO Steve Jobs approached AT&T about partnering on a new kind of mobile phone — a touchscreen computer that would fit in your pocket — Apple had no expertise in the mobile market. Daniel Kahneman, the 2002 Nobel prize laureate and psychologist, has said that if he had a magic wand, he’d eliminate it.