CIOs: Scenario Planning Can Save Your Job

Harvard Business Review

It''s the rare CIO who applies scenario planning to the business of IT. Yet, in a function driven by innovation and the uncertainties surrounding the application and implication of future technologies, not using scenarios is tantamount to management malpractice. Scenarios can help IT organizations create more resilient plans, practice for business climate changes, and better drive innovation. Creating More Resilient Plans. Scenarios and Innovation.

Uncharted: How to Navigate the Future

Leading Blog

We can develop scenarios to “identify and test how and where the future and the present meet.” Scenario planning always surfaces conflict and there is always a moment when everything seems to fall apart. P REDICTION has never been easy – or that accurate.

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Paul J.H. Schoemaker: A second interview by Bob Morris

First Friday Book Synopsis

Schoemaker is a pioneer in the field of decision sciences, among the first to combine the practical ideas of decision theory, behavioral economics, scenario planning, and risk management into a set of strategic decision-making tools for managers. International Science Index Lord Kelvin Mack Center for Technological Innovation Miles Davis Milton Friedman Nudge Paul J.H. Paul J.H.

Mindfulness as a Management Technique Goes Back to at Least the 1970s

Harvard Business

It first influenced business decades ago, through the development of an unmistakably hard skill that senior managers must master: strategic planning. Leaders today would be wise to learn from the past and to view strategic planning and mindfulness together. Pierre Wack, who was head of Group Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1970s, studied meditation extensively with teachers in Asia and, later, with the famous 20th-century mystic G.I.

How Organizations Can Thrive in the Digital Economy - SPONSOR CONTENT FROM KORN FERRY

Harvard Business

Agile businesses run planning and execution in parallel, investing in scenario planning so they can act promptly when opportunities arise. This means streamlining reporting lines, engaging a wider group of stakeholders from the outset, sharing ideas and plans before they’re fully formulated, and seeking input along the way. With the digital revolution, value comes from technology, data, and algorithms. Image courtesy of Korn Ferry.

SPM 59

The Death of Supply Chain Management

Harvard Business

To make the best decisions, managers need access to real-time data about their supply chain, but the limitations of legacy technologies can thwart the goal of end-to-end transparency. New digital technologies that have the potential to take over supply chain management entirely are disrupting traditional ways of working. Rio Tinto, the global mining-and-metals company, is exploring how digital technologies can automate mine-to-port operations. Alistair Berg/Getty Images.

How to Think Like a Futurist

Strategy Driven

It’s about coming up with possible scenarios for the future given these developments. Now, in 2019, I think anything beyond 10-15 years is reasonably futile because we bump up against the technological singularity (the time when machine intelligence becomes so sophisticated that it causes currently unfathomable changes to human existence). Practices for Professionals business management futurist Strategic Planning strategydriven

Is Your Company Ready to Protect Its Reputation from Deep Fakes?

Harvard Business

An obvious scenario, one that some companies might find themselves dealing with in the not-too-distant future, is a faked video of their CEO making racist or sexist comments, or bribing a politician. As corporate leaders grapple with the question of how to prove something is (or isn’t) real, they will need to invest in new technology that helps them keep one step ahead of bad actors. t_kimura/Getty Images.

A Better Approach to Infrastructure Planning

Harvard Business Review

But in terms of their objectives and planning horizons, there is often a yawning gap between these private and public sector players. It is not hard to see why the two sides find it challenging to confer about infrastructure needs – much less participate in each other’s planning processes. It’s difficult for the public sector to coordinate planning across regions and modes. This makes scenario planning an effective approach for long-range freight transportation planning.

Create a Strategy That Anticipates and Learns

Harvard Business Review

The restaurant chain, Olive Garden, uses predictive analytics to guide its food buying and retail staffing plans. But maybe the thrill of accomplishment in these pockets is diverting senior managers’ attention from another, even more critical opportunity: Digital technologies are also rapidly changing how managers can acquire and assess the information they use to develop and execute on enterprise-wide strategy. Information & technology Leadership Strategy


Reimagining the Boardroom for an Age of Virtual Reality and AI

Harvard Business Review

But there are plenty of other tools they could be using to do their jobs better — technologies that have proved useful in other contexts. Through virtual-reality technology, for instance, boards could gain a deeper understanding of their companies and the value they create. Boards Technology Communication Collaboration Boards challenge their executives to get with the digital age — but many haven’t followed their own good advice.

Tools 12

Create a Strategy That Anticipates and Learns

Harvard Business

The restaurant chain, Olive Garden, uses predictive analytics to guide its food buying and retail staffing plans. But maybe the thrill of accomplishment in these pockets is diverting senior managers’ attention from another, even more critical opportunity: Digital technologies are also rapidly changing how managers can acquire and assess the information they use to develop and execute on enterprise-wide strategy.


An Exercise to Get Your Team Thinking Differently About the Future

Harvard Business Review

A way around this fallacy, we’ve found, is a speed-dating version of scenario planning, one that takes hours rather than months. The high-speed scenario workshop involved three steps: 1) Identify key story elements or drivers of the STEM talent “story” to be explored; 2) conceive a plausible future by combining the elements; and 3) explore this future to understand its implications for their businesses.

What a Good Moonshot Is Really For

Harvard Business Review

They''re a keystone of what we call a "future-back" approach to strategy, which unlike the "present forward" nature of most strategic-planning processes, doesn''t operate under the assumption that tomorrow will be pretty much like today, and the day after pretty much more of the same. At the heart of the future-back process is a consensus view of your company''s desired future state.This isn''t scenario planning, where you consider a range of possibilities.

Six Classes Your Employer Wishes You Could Take

Harvard Business Review

Scenarios. Scenario planning is as essential for strategy formulation as it is for the design of next generation technologies and industries. Thinking in terms of scenarios forces people to rigorously examine fundamental assumptions and unexpected risks. Scenarios demand expository and analytic, as well as literary, skills. Appreciating the essence of technology and the technology of essence is key. Cooking Science & Technology.

The Olympics as a Story of Risk Management

Harvard Business Review

A terrorist incident, a breakdown of the London rail system, power blackouts, volcanic ash clouds , flooding, an outbreak of infectious disease—the London organizing committee (LOCOG) and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) spent years thinking about every scenario they could imagine. Simulations of security incidents were rehearsed, and contingency plans for mass evacuations or emergency situations were put in place.

ExxonMobil’s Shareholder Vote Is a Tipping Point for Climate Issues

Harvard Business

Such a move might create inertia for some companies and investors if they see it as evidence that “business as usual” is now the most likely climate scenario. We witnessed a monumental event in a shareholder resolution calling on ExxonMobil, the world’s biggest publicly listed energy company, to disclose the impact on its business under a 2-degree scenario. Last week the world listened as Donald Trump announced, ‘We are out,’ proclaiming the U.S.

Get Ready for the New Era of Global Manufacturing

Harvard Business Review

Increasingly, customers demand more after-sale service; this is the norm now in business-to-business sales, but will spill over to consumer goods, too, thanks to some of the technology advances we'll talk about below. We see advances in materials, processes, and information technology that will make possible entirely new kinds of products and can radically alter how manufacturers operate. All over the world, automakers are mastering new drive train technologies.