Harvard Business Review

JULY 28, 2020

A conversation with consultant Peter Scoblic on scenario planning lessons from the U.S. Coast Guard.

Scenario Planning 11

Scenario Planning Planning Strategy Consultative 11

Leading Blog

DECEMBER 15, 2020

Different from experiments that “reveal immediate internal features of a complex system, scenarios explore where the internal organization meets the external environment, where uncertainties lurk beyond anyone’s control.”. Scenario planning always surfaces conflict and there is always a moment when everything seems to fall apart.

How To 348

How To Uncertainty Scenario Planning Learning-by-Doing 348

Lead Change Blog

APRIL 4, 2016

Scenario planning, a strategy first employed by Royal Dutch Shell, brings experts from a wide range of fields together to discuss actions if different scenarios take place. Scenario planning allows you to think out—in advance—various options.

Leadership 150

Leadership Scenario Planning Airlines Long-term 150

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 30, 2023

And fourth, scenario plan so that you have clear options for moving forward. Second, openly acknowledge that a setback has occurred to prevent backsliding. Third, adopt a growth mindset to help others strive for improvement instead of getting stuck on autopilot.

Project 24

Project Management Scenario Planning Team 24

Next Level Blog

APRIL 20, 2021

Part of the work of leadership right now is to have the patience to bring people together to do some scenario planning and diagnostic work on how the world and your marketplace has changed during the pandemic. Running the plays requires urgency; developing the playbook requires patience.

Learning-by-Doing 242

Learning-by-Doing Executive Coaching Scenario Planning Execution 242

The Horizons Tracker

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

Moore and Bazerman cite the example of game theory as a good way to test out how situations may unfold but you might also use things like scenario planning or red teaming to better imagine various different futures and the things that contribute to their unfolding.

Game Theory 82

Game Theory Scenario Planning Diversity Leadership 82

The Horizons Tracker

MAY 19, 2020

Scenario planning. The researchers simulated a number of different scenarios to try and gauge the impact different approaches to social distancing might have, both in terms of the number of people requiring inpatient and critical care, and those who ultimately die of the virus.

Long-term 98

Long-term Short-term Scenario Planning Guidelines 98

Leading Blog

NOVEMBER 23, 2018

Engaging in scenario planning or gaming is not to make accurate predictions, but “the very act of trying to imagine alternatives to the conventional view helps you perceive your options more clearly.” To make good decisions, we need to make those kinds of imaginative leaps. Johnson prescribes simulations to do just that.

Cost-Benefit Analysis 282

Cost-Benefit Analysis Scenario Planning Objective Storytelling 282

First Friday Book Synopsis

MAY 23, 2012

Schoemaker is a pioneer in the field of decision sciences, among the first to combine the practical ideas of decision theory, behavioral economics, scenario planning, and risk management into a set of strategic decision-making tools for managers.

Scenario Planning 85

Scenario Planning Risk Management Books Tools 85

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 23, 2013

It''s the rare CIO who applies scenario planning to the business of IT. Yet, in a function driven by innovation and the uncertainties surrounding the application and implication of future technologies, not using scenarios is tantamount to management malpractice.

Scenario Planning 8

Scenario Planning CIO Planning Uncertainty 8

Skip Prichard

DECEMBER 9, 2021

In the depths of the COVID-19 lockdown, executives at Salesforce developed a long-term scenario-planning tool to help enterprise customers rediscover their decision-making confidence in a world turned upside down. Would you share one of your many examples of putting it in action?

Storytelling 122

Storytelling How To Audience Scenario Planning 122

In the CEO Afterlife

SEPTEMBER 12, 2011

Separately, but on the same topic, a question for you, John: How do you feel about “scenario planning” exercises as a way to try to imagine and think through the most probable crises that may confront a particular company or organization? September 13, 2011 at 10:30 pm. Thanks for the comment, Paul.

Crisis Management 268

Crisis Management Crisis CEO Management 268

Strategy Driven

JANUARY 8, 2019

Futurists use tools that systematize these recommendations including scenario planning, environmental scanning, Delphi surveying, and individual software programs like Fibres, Futures Platform, and Athena. You can do this by reading a ton and consulting experts in your field about what they’re seeing.

Flextime 89

Flextime How To Scenario Planning Open-book 89

Center for Creative Leadership

JUNE 22, 2020

Rather than waiting to be caught by surprise, they revel in scenario planning, learning about future trends, and imagining how they can influence the world to their advantage. Leaders who endure through challenge after challenge are learners at their core and they soak up knowledge from everywhere and everyone.

Leadership 106

Leadership How To Influence Learning-by-Doing 106

HR Digest

OCTOBER 7, 2020

Hiring managers must consider scenario planning to surmise all possible outcomes and device strategies to address each of these different possibilities. This workforce strategy may motive employees to learn new skills, and at the same time give them a sense of job security. Managing workforce in times of disruption.

Management 98

Management Crisis Skills Supply Chain 98

Harvard Business Review

MAY 2, 2018

Through his unique lens, he came to create what we know as scenario planning — a widely used strategic planning practice that now spans all sectors. An HBR contributor, he wrote two seminal articles about Shell and scenario planning in 1985. Planning well, in his estimation, required “training the mind.”

Scenario Planning 12

Scenario Planning Strategic Planning Management Kleiner 12

Harvard Business Review

JULY 10, 2014

The product of an MIT CTL research initiative called Future Freight Flows, it is a method of convening conversations and achieving alignment, based on the practice of scenario planning. This makes scenario planning an effective approach for long-range freight transportation planning.

Planning 8

Planning Scenario Planning Transportation Workshop 8

CO2

JANUARY 2, 2011

The Empathy Map looks like this: In this chapter the authors walk you through processes to arrive a enhanced design like Customer Insights, ideation, providing an introduction to the value of visual thinking, how to use prototyping, story telling, and Scenario Planning.

Executive Coaching 141

Executive Coaching Business Model Execution Blog 141

Innovation Excellence

DECEMBER 10, 2019

One issue has been on my mind for quite some time. Let me share with you a key learning from my innovation work in and with diverse companies over the years. It can be termed pretty catchy as: Window of Corporate Opportunity. In brief, this notion can be delineated as follows: Sustainable, effective and impactful corporate innovation.

Innovation 79

Innovation Diversity Company Scenario Planning 79

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 23, 2015

A way around this fallacy, we’ve found, is a speed-dating version of scenario planning, one that takes hours rather than months. Obviously, a brief workshop like this one shouldn’t be used to shape strategy; that requires true scenario planning.

Kahneman 8

Kahneman Scenario Planning Team Pharmaceuticals 8

Strategy Driven

NOVEMBER 2, 2012

Have you done scenario planning of measures beyond your immediate control, i.e. external factors which profoundly impact your livelihood? Do performance measures provide an early warning system for problems? How do you handle crisis management and preparedness? Have you prioritized and fully defined key measures and non-key measures?

Strategic Planning 91

Strategic Planning Budgeting Planning Learning-by-Doing 91

Strategy Driven

OCTOBER 25, 2013

Next comes Crisis Planning. What-if scenario planning is similar to the processes utilized in overall company strategic planning and visioning. The crisis plan must be part of the bigger process, not an adjunct or afterthought.

Crisis Management 99

Crisis Management Crisis Risk Management Learning-by-Doing 99

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 30, 2017

For example, you may be strategizing on a project that requires scenario planning. To simulate the scenario and possible outcomes, you can’t be too rigid. This kind of scenario planning will take your mind off constant focus but also prepare your brain to reach your goals.

Self-aware 11

Self-aware Scenario Planning Energy Goal 11

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 25, 2012

Scenario planning is impossible. They told me that in the world where there are no precedents, you have to trust your own judgment. There are multiple ways of getting around each challenge, and a variety of consequences that can come from your actions. So instead you simply move forward in the way you know in your heart to be right.

Uncertainty 15

Uncertainty Scenario Planning Media Planning 15

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 6, 2014

This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning. Scientific management and scenario planning, while forward-thinking, rely on information that’s in the rear view mirror. It’s an entirely different animal.

Strategy 11

Strategy Scientific Management Scenario Planning SWOT 11

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 6, 2014

This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning. Scientific management and scenario planning, while forward-thinking, rely on information that’s in the rear view mirror. It’s an entirely different animal.

Strategy 8

Strategy Scientific Management Scenario Planning SWOT 8

Harvard Business Review

NOVEMBER 8, 2018

In addition, companies must begin to factor deep fakes and other reality-distortion techniques into their crisis-scenario planning. Pushing these platforms to take the future of misinformation seriously would be good not only for corporations but also for society at large.

Reputation 10

Reputation Company Crisis Video 10

Harvard Business Review

JUNE 15, 2018

Similarly, a steel company built a customized scenario-planning tool into its control tower platform that increases supply chain responsiveness and resilience.

Supply Chain 8

Supply Chain Management Short-term Scenario Planning 8

Harvard Business Review

NOVEMBER 1, 2011

To minimize their negative impact, there are two steps that managers can take: Plan ahead (as much as you can). One way to reinforce this assumption is to engage in scenario planning before pulling the trigger, preferably by engaging people who will be affected by the change.

Airlines 11

Airlines Supply Chain Scenario Planning Travel 11

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 31, 2016

Sure, the value of an in-depth discovery phase; comprehensive, quantitative, and qualitative research; stakeholder interviews; scenario planning; and alignment are undisputed. And how often have you crafted a meticulous three-year strategic plan, only to have it become obsolete after a few months, or even weeks?

Agility 8

Agility Strategy Long-term Short-term 8

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 6, 2011

For example, when it comes to preparation for a possible showdown involving North Korea, there has been no discussion or scenario planning between American and Chinese top brass — not a recipe for good crisis management.

Politics 13

Politics Gordon Scenario Planning Crisis 13

Harvard Business Review

MAY 14, 2013

At the heart of the future-back process is a consensus view of your company''s desired future state.This isn''t scenario planning, where you consider a range of possibilities. But in turbulent times, these approaches can lead companies to miss critical market inflection points.

Scenario Planning 8

Scenario Planning Consensus Innovation Strategic Planning 8

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 23, 2011

The kind of thinking generated by scenario planning, video/war-gaming, and design thinking need to move from the margins of corporations and government organizations to core strategic positions. They need to be embraced by leaders to enable them to deal with a world of radical uncertainty.

Uncertainty 12

Uncertainty Supply Chain Scenario Planning Creativity 12

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 28, 2017

Agile businesses run planning and execution in parallel, investing in scenario planning so they can act promptly when opportunities arise. Digitally sustainable organizations are agile: They think fast, decide fast, execute fast, fail fast, learn fast, and scale fast. They are also prepared to take risks.

Organization 8

Organization Content Agility SPM 8

Harvard Business Review

MAY 29, 2017

These can be laid out in scenario plans with specific mitigation actions assigned to help businesses react quickly if necessary. Then, firms need to think through the types of political and macroeconomic events (e.g. further sanctions, oil price drop, protests, etc.) that could influence the economy (e.g.

Politics 8

Politics Policies Long-term Depreciation 8

Harvard Business Review

APRIL 3, 2015

It would be an antidote to the insularity that so many boards are criticized for, and a useful complement to the simulations and war-game tools that help with scenario planning and anticipating competitors’ moves.

Scenario Planning 8

Scenario Planning Learning-by-Doing Tools Execution 8

Harvard Business Review

MAY 2, 2016

Google’s Chade-Meng Tan , has developed dozens of such workplace meditation modules that could fit neatly into planning retreats. Explore alternative scenarios: It’s also possible to inject an element of mindfulness without meditating at all.

Strategy 8

Strategy Goleman Strategic Planning Parcell 8