Scenario Planning - build alternative futures.

Management Craft

BTW, I was looking at Thomas Chermack 's book, Scenario Planning in Organizations. Do you use scenario planning? Here is how Tom defines scenario planning (from his website): "Scenario planning is a discipline for building alternative futures in which decisions can be played out for the purposes of changing thinking, improving decision-making, fostering individual, team, and organizational learning, and improving performance.

CIOs: Scenario Planning Can Save Your Job

Harvard Business Review

It''s the rare CIO who applies scenario planning to the business of IT. Yet, in a function driven by innovation and the uncertainties surrounding the application and implication of future technologies, not using scenarios is tantamount to management malpractice.

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Exploring Alternate Futures Can Help Identify Future Leaders

N2Growth Blog

Scenarios and scenario-based planning are widely recognized as valuable tools in setting organizations’ visions and strategies. Shell is the most famed for their scenarios and their process for developing them and using them.

Five Leadership Lessons from the Garden

Lead Change Blog

Scenario planning, a strategy first employed by Royal Dutch Shell, brings experts from a wide range of fields together to discuss actions if different scenarios take place. Scenario planning allows you to think out—in advance—various options.

Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most

Leading Blog

Engaging in scenario planning or gaming is not to make accurate predictions, but “the very act of trying to imagine alternatives to the conventional view helps you perceive your options more clearly.” L IFE GIVES US CHOICES, and we make decisions.

Crisis Management: The Ultimate Test of a Leader | In the CEO.

In the CEO Afterlife

You’d think a company drilling on the ocean’s floor would be adept in risk management planning. Whether Hayward was a part of a risk management plan or not, the guy failed at the moment his employees, his shareholders, his fellow human beings and the planet needed him most.

Paul J.H. Schoemaker: A second interview by Bob Morris

First Friday Book Synopsis

Schoemaker is a pioneer in the field of decision sciences, among the first to combine the practical ideas of decision theory, behavioral economics, scenario planning, and risk management into a set of strategic decision-making tools for managers. Paul J.H.

Mindfulness as a Management Technique Goes Back to at Least the 1970s

Harvard Business Review

It first influenced business decades ago, through the development of an unmistakably hard skill that senior managers must master: strategic planning. Leaders today would be wise to learn from the past and to view strategic planning and mindfulness together. Pierre Wack, who was head of Group Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1970s, studied meditation extensively with teachers in Asia and, later, with the famous 20th-century mystic G.I.

Business Model Generation : Blog | Executive Coaching | CO2 Partners


The Empathy Map looks like this: In this chapter the authors walk you through processes to arrive a enhanced design like Customer Insights, ideation, providing an introduction to the value of visual thinking, how to use prototyping, story telling, and Scenario Planning. RSS Feed Schedule a Call Free E-Book Assessment Test Coffee Schedule Coaching Lunch About Us CO2 Story Our Approach Our Successes Our Executive Coaches Gary B.

A Better Approach to Infrastructure Planning

Harvard Business Review

But in terms of their objectives and planning horizons, there is often a yawning gap between these private and public sector players. It is not hard to see why the two sides find it challenging to confer about infrastructure needs – much less participate in each other’s planning processes. It’s difficult for the public sector to coordinate planning across regions and modes. This makes scenario planning an effective approach for long-range freight transportation planning.

The Big Picture of Business: Putting Budgeting Into Perspective, The Bigger Picture of Strategic Planning

Strategy Driven

Budgets get more attention than the umbrellas under which they rightfully belong: Strategic Planning and Visioning. By itself, Budgeting does not constitute full-scope planning and business strategy. Does your strategic plan adequately describe what you do?

The Big Picture of Business – Achieving the Best by Preparing for the Worst: Lessons Learned from High-Profile Crises, part 4 of 4

Strategy Driven

Next comes Crisis Planning. What-if scenario planning is similar to the processes utilized in overall company strategic planning and visioning. The crisis plan must be part of the bigger process, not an adjunct or afterthought. Thinking Through the Strategies.

An Exercise to Get Your Team Thinking Differently About the Future

Harvard Business Review

A way around this fallacy, we’ve found, is a speed-dating version of scenario planning, one that takes hours rather than months. Obviously, a brief workshop like this one shouldn’t be used to shape strategy; that requires true scenario planning.

Persevering Through Extreme Uncertainty

Harvard Business Review

Scenario planning is impossible. What does it take to be a corporate trailblazer? I recently found an answer to this question in an unexpected place — talking to three Afghan women in downtown Kabul. The first woman founded a large Afghani news agency several years ago. Her home was subsequently bombed multiple times by those who would prefer that the country's reality not be presented to the world. She has also escaped acid attacks and death threats.

Is Your Company Ready to Protect Its Reputation from Deep Fakes?

Harvard Business Review

An obvious scenario, one that some companies might find themselves dealing with in the not-too-distant future, is a faked video of their CEO making racist or sexist comments, or bribing a politician. t_kimura/Getty Images.

4 Signs That Your Focus Is Holding You Back at Work

Harvard Business Review

And since imagining future events involves tinkering with information stored in various brain regions from past experiences (to create novel associations and scenarios), this requires the brain’s unfocus circuit to be activated. When you focus too much, you turn off your brain’s imagining circuits, which can impact your brain’s planning to reach your goal. For example, you may be strategizing on a project that requires scenario planning.

How Organizations Can Thrive in the Digital Economy - SPONSOR CONTENT FROM KORN FERRY

Harvard Business Review

Agile businesses run planning and execution in parallel, investing in scenario planning so they can act promptly when opportunities arise. This means streamlining reporting lines, engaging a wider group of stakeholders from the outset, sharing ideas and plans before they’re fully formulated, and seeking input along the way. Image courtesy of Korn Ferry.

SPM 16

Create a Strategy That Anticipates and Learns

Harvard Business Review

The restaurant chain, Olive Garden, uses predictive analytics to guide its food buying and retail staffing plans. This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning. Scientific management and scenario planning, while forward-thinking, rely on information that’s in the rear view mirror. The company uses these insights to drive—and adapt—strategic plans for new device and service offerings (e.g.,


Be Prepared for What You Don't See Coming

Harvard Business Review

To minimize their negative impact, there are two steps that managers can take: Plan ahead (as much as you can). One way to reinforce this assumption is to engage in scenario planning before pulling the trigger, preferably by engaging people who will be affected by the change. For example, my firm once worked with the operations executives of a large company that planned to shift some of its factory employees from an hourly to a salaried pay program.

Reimagining the Boardroom for an Age of Virtual Reality and AI

Harvard Business Review

It would be an antidote to the insularity that so many boards are criticized for, and a useful complement to the simulations and war-game tools that help with scenario planning and anticipating competitors’ moves.

Tools 16

Make Your Strategy More Agile

Harvard Business Review

Sure, the value of an in-depth discovery phase; comprehensive, quantitative, and qualitative research; stakeholder interviews; scenario planning; and alignment are undisputed. And how often have you crafted a meticulous three-year strategic plan, only to have it become obsolete after a few months, or even weeks? Can you run fast and go deep at the same time?

The G-20 is 2011's Biggest Political Risk

Harvard Business Review

For example, when it comes to preparation for a possible showdown involving North Korea, there has been no discussion or scenario planning between American and Chinese top brass — not a recipe for good crisis management. David Gordon is the head of research at Eurasia Group and former director of policy planning at the U.S.

What a Good Moonshot Is Really For

Harvard Business Review

They''re a keystone of what we call a "future-back" approach to strategy, which unlike the "present forward" nature of most strategic-planning processes, doesn''t operate under the assumption that tomorrow will be pretty much like today, and the day after pretty much more of the same. At the heart of the future-back process is a consensus view of your company''s desired future state.This isn''t scenario planning, where you consider a range of possibilities.

The Death of Supply Chain Management

Harvard Business Review

Similarly, a steel company built a customized scenario-planning tool into its control tower platform that increases supply chain responsiveness and resilience. But when planning, purchasing, manufacturing, order fulfillment, and logistics are largely automated, what’s left for supply chain professionals? Alistair Berg/Getty Images. The supply chain is the heart of a company’s operations.

Mindfulness Can Improve Strategy, Too

Harvard Business Review

Practically speaking, can organizational leaders integrate mindfulness practices into strategic planning processes? So how can organizations bring more space to strategic planning? But it’s also possible to build mindfulness directly into planning exercises.

The Potential and Pitfalls of Doing Business in Cuba

Harvard Business Review

Under such a scenario, multinationals would see expanded opportunity across diverse sectors. These scenarios are not a given. The key to winning in Cuba will be to prepare with rigorous scenario planning in order to avoid being left on the sidelines once the market begins to bloom.

GDP 16

Create a Strategy That Anticipates and Learns

Harvard Business Review

The restaurant chain, Olive Garden, uses predictive analytics to guide its food buying and retail staffing plans. This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning. Scientific management and scenario planning, while forward-thinking, rely on information that’s in the rear view mirror. The company uses these insights to drive—and adapt—strategic plans for new device and service offerings (e.g.,


Navigating the Complexities of Doing Business in Russia

Harvard Business Review

This will likely continue to make business planning even more difficult. These can be laid out in scenario plans with specific mitigation actions assigned to help businesses react quickly if necessary. Despite the turmoil in Russian-Western relations, having a plan to respond quickly can help multinationals weather, manage, or even capitalize on political developments. Jennifer Maravillas for HBR. From the conflict in Ukraine, to Russian meddling in U.S.

Six Classes Your Employer Wishes You Could Take

Harvard Business Review

Scenarios. Scenario planning is as essential for strategy formulation as it is for the design of next generation technologies and industries. Thinking in terms of scenarios forces people to rigorously examine fundamental assumptions and unexpected risks.

China’s Slowdown: The First Stage of the Bullwhip Effect

Harvard Business Review

The essence of the phenomenon is the fact that each stage in the supply chain plans its capital projects and operations, including inventory levels, based on its future expectations. Demand forecasting may become more challenging as demand patterns change, and companies may be advised to look into forecasting methods based on scenario planning rather than historical patterns.

Living in a Radical State of Uncertainty

Harvard Business Review

The kind of thinking generated by scenario planning, video/war-gaming, and design thinking need to move from the margins of corporations and government organizations to core strategic positions.

The Olympics as a Story of Risk Management

Harvard Business Review

A terrorist incident, a breakdown of the London rail system, power blackouts, volcanic ash clouds , flooding, an outbreak of infectious disease—the London organizing committee (LOCOG) and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) spent years thinking about every scenario they could imagine. Simulations of security incidents were rehearsed, and contingency plans for mass evacuations or emergency situations were put in place.

What Research Tells Us About Making Accurate Predictions

Harvard Business Review

Interestingly, a smaller group were trained in scenario planning , but this turned out not to be as useful as the training in probabilistic reasoning.). “Prediction is very difficult,” the old chestnut goes, “especially about the future.”

How Multinationals Should Be Planning for Brexit

Harvard Business Review

Only a minority of firms is well ahead in planning and preparing a UK market strategy. At the recent Brexit Workshop we held for clients — in this case, 19 UK heads of some of the world’s largest multinational firms — 10 of them had not started or had only just begun planning for Brexit. But that doesn’t mean companies shouldn’t start the work required to come up with a plan. How to Plan for Brexit. Understand possible scenarios.

Get Ready for the New Era of Global Manufacturing

Harvard Business Review

For example, in a world of rising and complex risk, they will need to adopt planning systems that don't rely on point forecasts, but use scenario planning.

Setting Strategy in Egypt's (and Other) Shifting Sands: A Four-Part Approach

Harvard Business Review

Consultants came to their assistance with solutions to short-term concerns ranging from moving out cash to halting expansion plans. Instead, managers should develop their strategic responses to political transitions using a four-step process: First, managers need to develop transition scenarios for the countries in which operate — even relating to the unlikely or low-probability events. In terms of scenario planning , firms would think about alternative paths.

4 Strategies for Women Navigating Office Politics

Harvard Business Review

Let planning trump politics. An intrepid energy industry executive we know takes a novel, planning-based approach to managing politics, and we’ve taught the same method to many female executives over the years.

ExxonMobil’s Shareholder Vote Is a Tipping Point for Climate Issues

Harvard Business Review

Such a move might create inertia for some companies and investors if they see it as evidence that “business as usual” is now the most likely climate scenario. We witnessed a monumental event in a shareholder resolution calling on ExxonMobil, the world’s biggest publicly listed energy company, to disclose the impact on its business under a 2-degree scenario. Last week the world listened as Donald Trump announced, ‘We are out,’ proclaiming the U.S.

What a Changing NAFTA Could Mean for Doing Business in Mexico

Harvard Business Review

While consumer spending has proven resilient, with same-store retail sales rising 6% YOY in April , most multinational corporations are developing contingency plans to mitigate risks to their businesses and reassessing the country’s role in their global market portfolio and supply chains. Most Mexico country managers believe one of the following scenarios is likely: A long period of populist-driven uncertainty.