Management Craft

OCTOBER 3, 2011

BTW, I was looking at Thomas Chermack 's book, Scenario Planning in Organizations. Do you use scenario planning? Here is how Tom defines scenario planning (from his website): "Scenario planning is a discipline for building alternative futures in which decisions can be played out for the purposes of changing thinking, improving decision-making, fostering individual, team, and organizational learning, and improving performance.

Scenario Planning 53

Scenario Planning Planning Strategic Planning Environment 53

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 23, 2013

It''s the rare CIO who applies scenario planning to the business of IT. Yet, in a function driven by innovation and the uncertainties surrounding the application and implication of future technologies, not using scenarios is tantamount to management malpractice.

Scenario Planning 16

Scenario Planning CIO Uncertainty CTO 16

N2Growth Blog

SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

Scenarios and scenario-based planning are widely recognized as valuable tools in setting organizations’ visions and strategies. Shell is the most famed for their scenarios and their process for developing them and using them.

Scenario Planning 299

Scenario Planning Planning Strategic Planning Budgeting 299

Lead Change Blog

APRIL 4, 2016

Scenario planning, a strategy first employed by Royal Dutch Shell, brings experts from a wide range of fields together to discuss actions if different scenarios take place. Scenario planning allows you to think out—in advance—various options.

Leadership 311

Leadership Scenario Planning Airlines Fashion 311

Leading Blog

NOVEMBER 23, 2018

Engaging in scenario planning or gaming is not to make accurate predictions, but “the very act of trying to imagine alternatives to the conventional view helps you perceive your options more clearly.” L IFE GIVES US CHOICES, and we make decisions.

Cost-Benefit Analysis 352

Cost-Benefit Analysis Storytelling Scenario Planning Uncertainty 352

In the CEO Afterlife

SEPTEMBER 12, 2011

You’d think a company drilling on the ocean’s floor would be adept in risk management planning. Whether Hayward was a part of a risk management plan or not, the guy failed at the moment his employees, his shareholders, his fellow human beings and the planet needed him most.

Crisis Management 276

Crisis Management Crisis CEO Management 276

First Friday Book Synopsis

MAY 23, 2012

Schoemaker is a pioneer in the field of decision sciences, among the first to combine the practical ideas of decision theory, behavioral economics, scenario planning, and risk management into a set of strategic decision-making tools for managers. Paul J.H.

Lorenz 79

Lorenz Scenario Planning Kahneman Risk Management 79

Harvard Business Review

MAY 2, 2018

It first influenced business decades ago, through the development of an unmistakably hard skill that senior managers must master: strategic planning. Leaders today would be wise to learn from the past and to view strategic planning and mindfulness together. Pierre Wack, who was head of Group Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1970s, studied meditation extensively with teachers in Asia and, later, with the famous 20th-century mystic G.I.

Scenario Planning 14

Scenario Planning Kleiner Automotive Engineering 14

CO2

JANUARY 2, 2011

The Empathy Map looks like this: In this chapter the authors walk you through processes to arrive a enhanced design like Customer Insights, ideation, providing an introduction to the value of visual thinking, how to use prototyping, story telling, and Scenario Planning. RSS Feed Schedule a Call Free E-Book Assessment Test Coffee Schedule Coaching Lunch About Us CO2 Story Our Approach Our Successes Our Executive Coaches Gary B.

Business Model 114

Business Model Executive Coaching Execution Blog 114

Harvard Business Review

JULY 10, 2014

But in terms of their objectives and planning horizons, there is often a yawning gap between these private and public sector players. It is not hard to see why the two sides find it challenging to confer about infrastructure needs – much less participate in each other’s planning processes. It’s difficult for the public sector to coordinate planning across regions and modes. This makes scenario planning an effective approach for long-range freight transportation planning.

Scenario Planning 12

Scenario Planning Workshop Participative Project 12

Strategy Driven

NOVEMBER 2, 2012

Budgets get more attention than the umbrellas under which they rightfully belong: Strategic Planning and Visioning. By itself, Budgeting does not constitute full-scope planning and business strategy. Does your strategic plan adequately describe what you do?

Budgeting 100

Budgeting Strategic Planning Planning Supply Chain 100

Strategy Driven

OCTOBER 25, 2013

Next comes Crisis Planning. What-if scenario planning is similar to the processes utilized in overall company strategic planning and visioning. The crisis plan must be part of the bigger process, not an adjunct or afterthought. Thinking Through the Strategies.

Budgeting 107

Budgeting Risk Management Chemicals Scenario Planning 107

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 23, 2015

A way around this fallacy, we’ve found, is a speed-dating version of scenario planning, one that takes hours rather than months. Obviously, a brief workshop like this one shouldn’t be used to shape strategy; that requires true scenario planning.

Kahneman 16

Kahneman Scenario Planning Workshop Sharpe 16

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 25, 2012

Scenario planning is impossible. What does it take to be a corporate trailblazer? I recently found an answer to this question in an unexpected place — talking to three Afghan women in downtown Kabul. The first woman founded a large Afghani news agency several years ago. Her home was subsequently bombed multiple times by those who would prefer that the country's reality not be presented to the world. She has also escaped acid attacks and death threats.

Uncertainty 17

Uncertainty Scenario Planning Media Planning 17

Harvard Business Review

NOVEMBER 8, 2018

An obvious scenario, one that some companies might find themselves dealing with in the not-too-distant future, is a faked video of their CEO making racist or sexist comments, or bribing a politician. t_kimura/Getty Images.

Reputation 16

Reputation Video Crisis Scenario Planning 16

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 30, 2017

And since imagining future events involves tinkering with information stored in various brain regions from past experiences (to create novel associations and scenarios), this requires the brain’s unfocus circuit to be activated. When you focus too much, you turn off your brain’s imagining circuits, which can impact your brain’s planning to reach your goal. For example, you may be strategizing on a project that requires scenario planning.

Scenario Planning 14

Scenario Planning Energy Goal Short-term 14

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 28, 2017

Agile businesses run planning and execution in parallel, investing in scenario planning so they can act promptly when opportunities arise. This means streamlining reporting lines, engaging a wider group of stakeholders from the outset, sharing ideas and plans before they’re fully formulated, and seeking input along the way. Image courtesy of Korn Ferry.

SPM 16

SPM Agility Scenario Planning Content 16

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 6, 2014

The restaurant chain, Olive Garden, uses predictive analytics to guide its food buying and retail staffing plans. This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning. Scientific management and scenario planning, while forward-thinking, rely on information that’s in the rear view mirror. The company uses these insights to drive—and adapt—strategic plans for new device and service offerings (e.g.,

SWOT 12

SWOT Supply Chain Scenario Planning Scientific Management 12

Harvard Business Review

NOVEMBER 1, 2011

To minimize their negative impact, there are two steps that managers can take: Plan ahead (as much as you can). One way to reinforce this assumption is to engage in scenario planning before pulling the trigger, preferably by engaging people who will be affected by the change. For example, my firm once worked with the operations executives of a large company that planned to shift some of its factory employees from an hourly to a salaried pay program.

Airlines 17

Airlines Supply Chain Scenario Planning Travel 17

Harvard Business Review

APRIL 3, 2015

It would be an antidote to the insularity that so many boards are criticized for, and a useful complement to the simulations and war-game tools that help with scenario planning and anticipating competitors’ moves.

Tools 16

Tools Scenario Planning Compliance Budgeting 16

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 31, 2016

Sure, the value of an in-depth discovery phase; comprehensive, quantitative, and qualitative research; stakeholder interviews; scenario planning; and alignment are undisputed. And how often have you crafted a meticulous three-year strategic plan, only to have it become obsolete after a few months, or even weeks? Can you run fast and go deep at the same time?

Agility 12

Agility Bureaucracy Software Constraint 12

Harvard Business Review

JUNE 15, 2018

Similarly, a steel company built a customized scenario-planning tool into its control tower platform that increases supply chain responsiveness and resilience. But when planning, purchasing, manufacturing, order fulfillment, and logistics are largely automated, what’s left for supply chain professionals? Alistair Berg/Getty Images. The supply chain is the heart of a company’s operations.

Supply Chain 9

Supply Chain Retail Scenario Planning Operations 9

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 6, 2011

For example, when it comes to preparation for a possible showdown involving North Korea, there has been no discussion or scenario planning between American and Chinese top brass — not a recipe for good crisis management. David Gordon is the head of research at Eurasia Group and former director of policy planning at the U.S.

Gordon 17

Gordon Globalization Scenario Planning Crisis 17

Harvard Business Review

MAY 14, 2013

They''re a keystone of what we call a "future-back" approach to strategy, which unlike the "present forward" nature of most strategic-planning processes, doesn''t operate under the assumption that tomorrow will be pretty much like today, and the day after pretty much more of the same. At the heart of the future-back process is a consensus view of your company''s desired future state.This isn''t scenario planning, where you consider a range of possibilities.

Scenario Planning 12

Scenario Planning Consensus Advertising Strategic Planning 12

Harvard Business Review

MAY 2, 2016

Practically speaking, can organizational leaders integrate mindfulness practices into strategic planning processes? So how can organizations bring more space to strategic planning? But it’s also possible to build mindfulness directly into planning exercises.

Goleman 16

Goleman Parcell Strategic Planning Scenario Planning 16

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 16, 2016

Under such a scenario, multinationals would see expanded opportunity across diverse sectors. These scenarios are not a given. The key to winning in Cuba will be to prepare with rigorous scenario planning in order to avoid being left on the sidelines once the market begins to bloom.

GDP 16

GDP Telecommunications Constraint Scenario Planning 16

Harvard Business Review

MAY 29, 2017

This will likely continue to make business planning even more difficult. These can be laid out in scenario plans with specific mitigation actions assigned to help businesses react quickly if necessary. Despite the turmoil in Russian-Western relations, having a plan to respond quickly can help multinationals weather, manage, or even capitalize on political developments. Jennifer Maravillas for HBR. From the conflict in Ukraine, to Russian meddling in U.S.

Policies 13

Policies Depreciation Supply Chain Sharpe 13

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 6, 2014

The restaurant chain, Olive Garden, uses predictive analytics to guide its food buying and retail staffing plans. This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning. Scientific management and scenario planning, while forward-thinking, rely on information that’s in the rear view mirror. The company uses these insights to drive—and adapt—strategic plans for new device and service offerings (e.g.,

SWOT 10

SWOT Supply Chain Scenario Planning Scientific Management 10

Harvard Business Review

JUNE 7, 2017

Such a move might create inertia for some companies and investors if they see it as evidence that “business as usual” is now the most likely climate scenario. We witnessed a monumental event in a shareholder resolution calling on ExxonMobil, the world’s biggest publicly listed energy company, to disclose the impact on its business under a 2-degree scenario. Last week the world listened as Donald Trump announced, ‘We are out,’ proclaiming the U.S.

Supply Chain 9

Supply Chain Decentralization Proposal Scenario Planning 9

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 14, 2015

Let planning trump politics. An intrepid energy industry executive we know takes a novel, planning-based approach to managing politics, and we’ve taught the same method to many female executives over the years.

360-Degree Feedback 16

360-Degree Feedback Mentor Politics Scenario Planning 16

Harvard Business Review

JUNE 20, 2017

While consumer spending has proven resilient, with same-store retail sales rising 6% YOY in April , most multinational corporations are developing contingency plans to mitigate risks to their businesses and reassessing the country’s role in their global market portfolio and supply chains. Most Mexico country managers believe one of the following scenarios is likely: A long period of populist-driven uncertainty.

Supply Chain 13

Supply Chain Depreciation Contingency Plans Automotive 13

Harvard Business Review

SEPTEMBER 9, 2015

The essence of the phenomenon is the fact that each stage in the supply chain plans its capital projects and operations, including inventory levels, based on its future expectations. Demand forecasting may become more challenging as demand patterns change, and companies may be advised to look into forecasting methods based on scenario planning rather than historical patterns.

Crisis 12

Crisis Retail Restructuring Scenario Planning 12

Harvard Business Review

SEPTEMBER 5, 2013

Scenarios. Scenario planning is as essential for strategy formulation as it is for the design of next generation technologies and industries. Thinking in terms of scenarios forces people to rigorously examine fundamental assumptions and unexpected risks.

Supply Chain 16

Supply Chain Restructuring Class Sports 16

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 23, 2011

The kind of thinking generated by scenario planning, video/war-gaming, and design thinking need to move from the margins of corporations and government organizations to core strategic positions.

Uncertainty 17

Uncertainty Supply Chain Sharpe Scenario Planning 17

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 13, 2012

A terrorist incident, a breakdown of the London rail system, power blackouts, volcanic ash clouds , flooding, an outbreak of infectious disease—the London organizing committee (LOCOG) and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) spent years thinking about every scenario they could imagine. Simulations of security incidents were rehearsed, and contingency plans for mass evacuations or emergency situations were put in place.

Committee 17

Committee Risk Management Absenteeism Supply Chain 17

Harvard Business Review

FEBRUARY 2, 2015

Interestingly, a smaller group were trained in scenario planning , but this turned out not to be as useful as the training in probabilistic reasoning.). “Prediction is very difficult,” the old chestnut goes, “especially about the future.”

Sample 16

Sample Participative Scenario Planning Training 16

Harvard Business Review

MAY 15, 2018

Only a minority of firms is well ahead in planning and preparing a UK market strategy. At the recent Brexit Workshop we held for clients — in this case, 19 UK heads of some of the world’s largest multinational firms — 10 of them had not started or had only just begun planning for Brexit. But that doesn’t mean companies shouldn’t start the work required to come up with a plan. How to Plan for Brexit. Understand possible scenarios.

Supply Chain 8

Supply Chain Tourism Depreciation Workshop 8

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 31, 2013

For example, in a world of rising and complex risk, they will need to adopt planning systems that don't rely on point forecasts, but use scenario planning.

Supply Chain 16

Supply Chain Pharmaceuticals McKinsey Globalization 16

Harvard Business Review

FEBRUARY 14, 2011

Consultants came to their assistance with solutions to short-term concerns ranging from moving out cash to halting expansion plans. Instead, managers should develop their strategic responses to political transitions using a four-step process: First, managers need to develop transition scenarios for the countries in which operate — even relating to the unlikely or low-probability events. In terms of scenario planning , firms would think about alternative paths.

Prahalad 16

Prahalad Licensing Restructuring Marketing 16