CIOs: Scenario Planning Can Save Your Job

Harvard Business Review

It''s the rare CIO who applies scenario planning to the business of IT. Yet, in a function driven by innovation and the uncertainties surrounding the application and implication of future technologies, not using scenarios is tantamount to management malpractice. Scenarios can help IT organizations create more resilient plans, practice for business climate changes, and better drive innovation. Creating More Resilient Plans. Scenarios and Innovation.

Exploring Alternate Futures Can Help Identify Future Leaders

N2Growth Blog

Scenarios and scenario-based planning are widely recognized as valuable tools in setting organizations’ visions and strategies. Shell is the most famed for their scenarios and their process for developing them and using them. In their annual survey on the management and planning tools used by thousands of companies around the world, Bain and Company show a consistent and deserved popularity of scenario planning.

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Five Leadership Lessons from the Garden

Lead Change Blog

Scenario planning, a strategy first employed by Royal Dutch Shell, brings experts from a wide range of fields together to discuss actions if different scenarios take place. Scenario planning allows you to think out—in advance—various options. Leadership Development Gardening leadership lessons ManagementThe flowers that are in full bloom are wonderful. The weeds that have taken over one corner are terrible.

Uncharted: How to Navigate the Future

Leading Blog

We can develop scenarios to “identify and test how and where the future and the present meet.” Scenario planning always surfaces conflict and there is always a moment when everything seems to fall apart. P REDICTION has never been easy – or that accurate.

How To 327

Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most

Leading Blog

The art of making farsighted decisions “with as much wisdom as possible lies not in forcing that map to match some existing template, but instead in developing the kind of keen vision required to see the situation as it truly is. And the best way to develop that vision is to get different pairs of eyes on the problem.” With the decision mapped, the options identified, and the scenarios panned, it’s time to decide. L IFE GIVES US CHOICES, and we make decisions.

Mindfulness as a Management Technique Goes Back to at Least the 1970s

Harvard Business

It first influenced business decades ago, through the development of an unmistakably hard skill that senior managers must master: strategic planning. Leaders today would be wise to learn from the past and to view strategic planning and mindfulness together. Pierre Wack, who was head of Group Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1970s, studied meditation extensively with teachers in Asia and, later, with the famous 20th-century mystic G.I.

Crisis Management: The Ultimate Test of a Leader | In the CEO.

In the CEO Afterlife

You’d think a company drilling on the ocean’s floor would be adept in risk management planning. Whether Hayward was a part of a risk management plan or not, the guy failed at the moment his employees, his shareholders, his fellow human beings and the planet needed him most. Advance planning is very important, however, as you know, it’s impossible to know every crisis that may come your way. In the CEO Afterlife. Main menu Home. Leadership. Branding.

How to Think Like a Futurist

Strategy Driven

It’s about coming up with possible scenarios for the future given these developments. Futurists use tools that systematize these recommendations including scenario planning, environmental scanning, Delphi surveying, and individual software programs like Fibres, Futures Platform, and Athena. Now, product development should be extensively informed by customer feedback, including analysis of that feedback via data analytics.

The Big Picture of Business: Putting Budgeting Into Perspective, The Bigger Picture of Strategic Planning

Strategy Driven

Business development. Budgets get more attention than the umbrellas under which they rightfully belong: Strategic Planning and Visioning. By itself, Budgeting does not constitute full-scope planning and business strategy. Questions to follow in Budgeting as part of Strategic Planning and Visioning processes include: Does this process increase your accountability to funding sources and to the public? Does your strategic plan adequately describe what you do?

The Big Picture of Business – Achieving the Best by Preparing for the Worst: Lessons Learned from High-Profile Crises, part 4 of 4

Strategy Driven

Business development. The process of strategy development is not esoteric. Next comes Crisis Planning. What-if scenario planning is similar to the processes utilized in overall company strategic planning and visioning. The crisis plan must be part of the bigger process, not an adjunct or afterthought. Crisis planning and strategies should be intertwined with security issues, financial goals, workforce empowerment and many other corporate dynamics.

How Organizations Can Thrive in the Digital Economy - SPONSOR CONTENT FROM KORN FERRY

Harvard Business

Read more from Korn Ferry: How to Develop Leaders Who Can Drive Strategic Change. Agile businesses run planning and execution in parallel, investing in scenario planning so they can act promptly when opportunities arise. This means streamlining reporting lines, engaging a wider group of stakeholders from the outset, sharing ideas and plans before they’re fully formulated, and seeking input along the way. Image courtesy of Korn Ferry.

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A Better Approach to Infrastructure Planning

Harvard Business Review

But in terms of their objectives and planning horizons, there is often a yawning gap between these private and public sector players. It is not hard to see why the two sides find it challenging to confer about infrastructure needs – much less participate in each other’s planning processes. It’s difficult for the public sector to coordinate planning across regions and modes. This makes scenario planning an effective approach for long-range freight transportation planning.

Make Your Strategy More Agile

Harvard Business

Originating from agile software development, the sprint has entered the business mainstream as an increasingly popular means to accelerate business model, product, or service innovation. But the sprint format isn’t just for development and design anymore. Sure, the value of an in-depth discovery phase; comprehensive, quantitative, and qualitative research; stakeholder interviews; scenario planning; and alignment are undisputed.

Is Your Company Ready to Protect Its Reputation from Deep Fakes?

Harvard Business

An obvious scenario, one that some companies might find themselves dealing with in the not-too-distant future, is a faked video of their CEO making racist or sexist comments, or bribing a politician. But that technology is still in its early stages, and as it develops you can be sure that bad actors will be working on ways to defeat it. In addition, companies must begin to factor deep fakes and other reality-distortion techniques into their crisis-scenario planning.

Create a Strategy That Anticipates and Learns

Harvard Business

In health care, these tools are changing the way doctors identify people at risk of developing certain diseases; in fashion, they crunch purchasing data to anticipate trends; sales and marketing experts use them to tailor ad campaigns. The restaurant chain, Olive Garden, uses predictive analytics to guide its food buying and retail staffing plans. This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning.

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Navigating the Complexities of Doing Business in Russia

Harvard Business

This will likely continue to make business planning even more difficult. These can be laid out in scenario plans with specific mitigation actions assigned to help businesses react quickly if necessary. Despite the turmoil in Russian-Western relations, having a plan to respond quickly can help multinationals weather, manage, or even capitalize on political developments. Jennifer Maravillas for HBR. From the conflict in Ukraine, to Russian meddling in U.S.

Mindfulness Can Improve Strategy, Too

Harvard Business

Practically speaking, can organizational leaders integrate mindfulness practices into strategic planning processes? As UCLA’s Richard Rumelt, a leading expert on strategic planning, writes in his book Good Strategy, Bad Strategy , one of the quintessential components of good strategy is the ability to take a step out of the internal storyline and shift viewpoints. So how can organizations bring more space to strategic planning? FERIDUN AKGÜNGÖR.

An Exercise to Get Your Team Thinking Differently About the Future

Harvard Business Review

A way around this fallacy, we’ve found, is a speed-dating version of scenario planning, one that takes hours rather than months. The high-speed scenario workshop involved three steps: 1) Identify key story elements or drivers of the STEM talent “story” to be explored; 2) conceive a plausible future by combining the elements; and 3) explore this future to understand its implications for their businesses.

How Multinationals Should Be Planning for Brexit

Harvard Business

Only a minority of firms is well ahead in planning and preparing a UK market strategy. At the recent Brexit Workshop we held for clients — in this case, 19 UK heads of some of the world’s largest multinational firms — 10 of them had not started or had only just begun planning for Brexit. But that doesn’t mean companies shouldn’t start the work required to come up with a plan. How to Plan for Brexit. Understand possible scenarios.

Create a Strategy That Anticipates and Learns

Harvard Business Review

In health care, these tools are changing the way doctors identify people at risk of developing certain diseases; in fashion, they crunch purchasing data to anticipate trends; sales and marketing experts use them to tailor ad campaigns. The restaurant chain, Olive Garden, uses predictive analytics to guide its food buying and retail staffing plans. This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning.

SWOT 12

Be Prepared for What You Don't See Coming

Harvard Business Review

To minimize their negative impact, there are two steps that managers can take: Plan ahead (as much as you can). One way to reinforce this assumption is to engage in scenario planning before pulling the trigger, preferably by engaging people who will be affected by the change. For example, my firm once worked with the operations executives of a large company that planned to shift some of its factory employees from an hourly to a salaried pay program.

Reimagining the Boardroom for an Age of Virtual Reality and AI

Harvard Business Review

By using the technology to play the role of customer, investor, product developer, factory worker, and so on — making the kinds of choices they must make — board members could see the business (somewhat literally) from various stakeholders’ vantage points. It would be an antidote to the insularity that so many boards are criticized for, and a useful complement to the simulations and war-game tools that help with scenario planning and anticipating competitors’ moves.

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The Potential and Pitfalls of Doing Business in Cuba

Harvard Business Review

It uses two currencies, the convertible Peso (CUP) valued on par with the dollar and fully tradeable, and the Cuban Peso (CUC) valued at a rate of 24:1 with the dollar, which creates severe constraints for the development of Cuba’s export sector. Under such a scenario, multinationals would see expanded opportunity across diverse sectors. These scenarios are not a given.

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China’s Slowdown: The First Stage of the Bullwhip Effect

Harvard Business Review

The essence of the phenomenon is the fact that each stage in the supply chain plans its capital projects and operations, including inventory levels, based on its future expectations. Companies should anticipate this trend and start developing “value pricing” and less expensive products. For the last two months, global supply chains have been experiencing the first stage of a bullwhip effect triggered by uncertainties about the severity of China’s economic slowdown.

Living in a Radical State of Uncertainty

Harvard Business Review

These firsts-of-their-kind developments require unprecedented degrees of creativity.". The kind of thinking generated by scenario planning, video/war-gaming, and design thinking need to move from the margins of corporations and government organizations to core strategic positions.

The Olympics as a Story of Risk Management

Harvard Business Review

A terrorist incident, a breakdown of the London rail system, power blackouts, volcanic ash clouds , flooding, an outbreak of infectious disease—the London organizing committee (LOCOG) and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) spent years thinking about every scenario they could imagine. Simulations of security incidents were rehearsed, and contingency plans for mass evacuations or emergency situations were put in place.

ExxonMobil’s Shareholder Vote Is a Tipping Point for Climate Issues

Harvard Business

Such a move might create inertia for some companies and investors if they see it as evidence that “business as usual” is now the most likely climate scenario. We witnessed a monumental event in a shareholder resolution calling on ExxonMobil, the world’s biggest publicly listed energy company, to disclose the impact on its business under a 2-degree scenario. Last week the world listened as Donald Trump announced, ‘We are out,’ proclaiming the U.S.

Six Classes Your Employer Wishes You Could Take

Harvard Business Review

Scenarios. Scenario planning is as essential for strategy formulation as it is for the design of next generation technologies and industries. Thinking in terms of scenarios forces people to rigorously examine fundamental assumptions and unexpected risks. Scenarios demand expository and analytic, as well as literary, skills. What serious employer doesn''t want to hire someone who can envision and articulate scenarios describing the future(s) of the enterprise?

Get Ready for the New Era of Global Manufacturing

Harvard Business Review

First we see major shifts in demand: developing economies such as China and India are morphing from the world's source of low-cost manufacturing capacity to the world's best market opportunities. They will not, it must be noted, alter how the role of manufacturing evolves as economies develop. The megatrend in demand, of course, is the shift to developing economies. It will also see the arrival of new players — upstarts and new global players from developing economies.

Setting Strategy in Egypt's (and Other) Shifting Sands: A Four-Part Approach

Harvard Business Review

Developments in the Middle East — first the removal of long-time Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011 and now Hosni Mubarak's stepping down in Egypt — suggest that authoritarian regimes in the region are not immune to "people power." Consultants came to their assistance with solutions to short-term concerns ranging from moving out cash to halting expansion plans. In terms of scenario planning , firms would think about alternative paths.

What a Changing NAFTA Could Mean for Doing Business in Mexico

Harvard Business

While consumer spending has proven resilient, with same-store retail sales rising 6% YOY in April , most multinational corporations are developing contingency plans to mitigate risks to their businesses and reassessing the country’s role in their global market portfolio and supply chains. Most Mexico country managers believe one of the following scenarios is likely: A long period of populist-driven uncertainty.